亚洲商业正在进行改革。其新兴的跨国公司将改变我们所有人的生活方式
BUSINESS power follows economic power. In the 1920s British firms owned 40% of the global stock of foreign direct investment. By 1967 America was top dog, with a 50% share. Behind those figures lie cultural revolutions. The British spread the telegraph and trains in Latin America. American firms sold a vision of the good life, honed by Hollywood and advertising. Kellogg's changed what the rich world ate for breakfast, and Kodak how it remembered holidays. The next corporate revolution, as we describe in our special report this week, is happening in Asia. This too will change how the world lives.
商业实力随经济实力而来。上世纪20年代，英国公司曾拥有全球外资直接投资的40%。1967年，美国成为老大，拥有全球外资直接投资的一半。数据的背后是文化革命。英国在拉丁美洲传播的是电报和铁路交通。美国公司出售的是好莱坞和广告中所描述的那种美好生活愿景。凯洛格改变了富国的早餐内容，柯达改变了记住假日的方式的方式。正如我们在本期专题报道中所述，下一次企业革命正在亚洲展开，人们的生活方式也会为之而变。
Arrested development
受阻的发展
Asian capitalism has brawn. The continent's share of global GDP has risen from a fifth to 28% since 1984. It is the world's factory, a diverse region of rivals bound together by supply chains. But it lacks brains and global savvy. Asia smelts 76% of the world's iron and emits 44% of its pollution, but hosts only a tenth of its most valuable brands and venture-capital activity. Its multinationals punch below their weight, owning 17% of the world's foreign direct investment. Wealthy Japan and South Korea have a cast of superstars, such as Toyota and Samsung. But few other firms command the world stage.
亚洲资本主义具有发达的四肢。它占全球GDP的比例已经从1984年的20%上升至28%。它是世界工厂，一个各种各样的对手因供应链的存在而被绑在一起的地区。不过，它缺乏技术头脑和全球洞察力。亚洲融化的铁矿石占全球总量的76%，释放的污染占全球的44%，但是它拥有的最有价值的品牌和从事的风险投资活动只占全球的十分之一。它的跨国公司配不上它们的分量，拥有全球外资直接投资的17%。富裕的日本和韩国拥有不少超级明星，如丰田和三星。但是，其他公司很少能号令世界舞台。
That is because Asian capitalism has been too cosy. In the boom between 2002 and 2010 easy profits were made at home—growth was fast and labour and credit cheap. Two-thirds of big Asian firms are state-controlled or “business houses” (often family-run). These incumbents tend to be chummy with the government and get cheap land and loans. Half of all billionaire wealth in Asia has been made in sectors, such as property, that are prone to cronyism, versus 15% in the West. Outside Japan, Taiwan and South Korea, innovation has been neglected. Mahindra & Mahindra and Great Wall, car champions from India and China, have a combined research-and-development (R&D) budget that is 3% of Volkswagen's.
究其原因，亚洲资本主义过于不思进取。在2002年-2010年的繁荣期中，由于增长快速，劳动力和信贷成本低廉，在国内盈利是轻松的。三分之二的亚洲大公司或是国有的，或是经常由家族运营的“商号”。这些守成企业往往因为同政府关系密切而能得到廉价的土地和贷款。在亚洲的亿万富翁中，有半数是出自像房地产这样有任人唯亲倾向的部门。相比之下，在西方的亿万富翁中，只有15%出自这些部门。在日本、台湾和韩国之外，创新一直被忽视。作为印度和中国的大型汽车厂商，马亨德拉汽车公司和长城汽车公司的研发预算总和是大众公司的3%。
For Western firms, Asia's shortcomings have been a relief. The iPhone shows why: although it is made by the hands of Chinese workers, it is the brains behind it, at Apple and at high-tech component-makers in the rich world, that take nearly all the profits. Now, however, the rules that have governed Asian capitalism for the past two decades are changing. Asian firms are having to become brainier, more nimble and more global.
对于西方公司来说，亚洲公司的这些短处曾是一种解脱。iPhone揭示出其中的原因。尽管这种手机是经中国工人之手制造出来的，但拿走几乎全部利润的却是背后的苹果公司和富国高科技零部件制造商的聪明才智。然而，在过去20年中一直在支配亚洲资本主义的规则，如今正在发生变化。亚洲公司将会变得更有头脑，更加灵活，更加全球化。
The immediate motivation is underperformance: growth has slowed, and Asian shares have lagged American ones by 40% in the past three years. Three deeper trends are also at work. First, labour costs are rising, not least in China, and East Asia's workforce is ageing. Second, Asia's middle class is becoming more demanding. They are no longer satisfied with fake Louis Vuitton handbags; they want clean air, safe food and more leisure, and are madly in love with the internet. Third, competition has intensified from Western multinationals, which have invested $2 trillion in Asia. They also now use the same cheapish labour, and they generally have much more sophisticated supply chains, brands and R&D.
直接动机是表现欠佳：增长的放缓导致亚洲公司的股票在过去三年中的表现落后美国公司40%。三个更深层次的趋势也在起作用。第一，劳动力成本正在上涨，不仅中国的劳动力正在老龄化，东亚工厂的劳动力也是如此。第二，亚洲中产阶层的要求正在日趋多样化。他们不再满足于山寨版的路易威登手包；他们想要清洁的空气、安全的食品和更多的休闲，他们的互联网之爱是疯狂的。第三，来自已在亚洲投资2万亿美元的西方跨国公司的竞争正在日益激烈。这些公司也在使用同样廉价的劳动力，而且它们通常要比亚洲公司拥有更加成熟的供应链、品牌和研发。
With their home markets no longer quite so safe, Asian firms are adapting—and becoming stronger. In response to rising wages, production (of clothes, for example) is shifting from China to South-East Asia and Africa, led by Japanese firms which are also worried about a war with the Middle Kingdom. Chinese firms such as Haier, which makes fridges, plan to automate factories and get into cleverer products. And as the Chinese push upmarket, the Koreans are redoubling efforts to stay ahead. Samsung's spending on R&D rose by 24% in 2013. If they get their act together, India and Indonesia, Asia's bumbling giants, will attract lots of factory jobs. Their best firms are also getting brainier. Once dismissed as “body shops”, India's IT-outsourcing firms are now leaders in big data.
鉴于国内市场已经不再安全，亚洲公司正在适应变化，并且会因此而变得更加强大。为了应对不断上涨的工资，同时也因为他们担心中日爆发战争，日本公司正在带头将生产线（如服装生产线）从中国转移到东南亚和非洲。于此同时，中国公司，如生产电冰箱的海尔，正在计划让工厂实现自动化，涉足更有科技含量的产品。就在中国人进入高端市场之时，韩国人也在加倍努力，力图保住领先地位。三星的研发开支在2013年增长了24%。作为亚洲行动不便的巨人，如果印度和印尼联起手来，必将引来众多的工厂工作。这两个国家最好的公司还在变得更有头脑。曾被斥之为“零部件商店”的印度IT外包公司，如今已是大数据的先行者。
Rising consumer aspirations are helping internet firms disrupt traditional industries. Alibaba, a Chinese internet giant, is expanding into banking, telecoms and logistics. Analysts think it might be worth $150 billion, more than China's steel industry. China's drive to reform its state-owned firms is meant to make them more responsive to customers. Xi Guohua, the boss of China Mobile, plans to give shares to his staff. Across Asia demand for health care is likely to create a whole new generation of companies—the industry comprises only 4% of the region's stockmarket, compared with 12% in the rich world.
互联网公司正在借助日益增长的消费者需求撼动传统产业。作为中国的互联网巨头，阿里巴巴正在进军银行、电信和物流。分析师给它的估值是1500亿美元，超过了中国的钢铁产业。中国推动国有企业的改革是为了让这些公司能够更加积极地应对客户。中国移动董事长奚国华计划利用公司的股份奖励下属。亚洲各国的卫生保健需求可能创造出全新一代的公司。如今，该产业公司的股票市值只占地区股票市场的4%。相比之下，富裕国家的比例是15%。
In order to challenge foreign rivals, Asian firms are globalising, following the example of Samsung and Toyota. Lenovo, a thriving Chinese computer firm, has Western-style governance and many foreign staff. Huawei has overtaken Ericsson in telecoms equipment. India's Sun Pharma is now one of the world’s biggest generic-drugs firms. Tencent, China’s Facebook, has hired the footballer Lionel Messi to advertise its services abroad. Sprawling business houses are evolving into focused multinationals. Tata Sons is now a superb IT firm and luxury-car maker tied to a ragbag of Indian assets.
为挑战外国对手，亚洲公司正在以三星和丰田为榜样走向全球化。作为一个正在蓬勃发展的中国计算机公司，联想不仅拥有西方的管理模式，而且还有许多外国职员。华为已在电信设备市场上超越了爱立信。印度的太阳制药如今已是世界最大的基因制药公司之一。中国的Facebook，腾讯公司已经雇佣足球明星梅西为其国外服务做广告。无序生长的商号正在进化为专业的跨国公司。Tata Sons如今已是一家把企业命运同许多印度资产捆绑在一起的杰出的IT企业和豪华汽车制造商。
Cereal killers
麦片的杀手
Asian business needs to do much more. Big firms are spending 50% more on R&D than five years ago, but must get better at breakthrough innovations. Conglomerates must focus on a few areas where they can achieve global scale. Governments can do their bit, by freeing state firms from meddling and ensuring that powerful incumbents do not stifle entrepreneurs.
亚洲商业尚需加倍的努力。虽说大公司的研发开支已比5年前增加了50%，但是仍需在突破性创新方面做得更好。大型企业必须将精力放在少数几个能让它们在全球范围内取得成功的领域。政府可以通过为国有企业松绑和确保强大的守成企业不会扼杀创业精神的方式，为亚洲商业做出贡献。
Western firms should pay attention. In some industries—aircraft manufacturing, for example—the barriers to entry are still immense, but in other sectors brands and technology will no longer be a shield from emerging Asian competition. The threat to low-paid Western jobs may recede. Haier’s Chinese workers are paid 25% of what its American workers get, up from 5% in 2000. Instead it may be copywriters, scientists and designers who feel the chill of competition from the East.
西方公司理应给与重视。以飞机制造为例，某些产业的准入门槛依旧过高；而在其他的一些行业，品牌和技术将不再是躲避来自新兴亚洲公司竞争的盾牌。对低工资的西方工作的威胁可能会消退。在2010年的时候，海尔中国工人的工资是其美国工人的5%，如今已经上升至25%。相反，到是有可能是撰稿人、科学家和设计师会感受到来自东方的竞争的寒意。
History suggests consumers will adapt fast. In 20 years, miracle cures for the old will come from Japan, the best web apps from India and couture from China. And cornflakes, once a cutting-edge food, will be rivalled by congee and dosas, sold in boxes by a global brand. Asian capitalism will change the world—even, maybe, what it has for breakfast.
之前的经历告诉我们，消费者的适应速度将会是很快的。在今后的20年中，专为老年人发明的神奇药品将来自日本，最好的网络应用将来自印度，高级服装将来自中国。曾经的流行食品——玉米片必将面临挑战，而挑战它的会是一种由某个全球品牌生产的被装在盒子里出售的食品。亚洲资本主义必将改变世界，甚至于改变人们的早餐。
remark:第一，劳动力成本正在上涨，不仅中国的劳动力正在老龄化，东亚工厂的劳动力也是如此。第二，亚洲中产阶层的要求正在日趋多样化。他们不再满足于山寨版的路易威登手包；他们想要清洁的空气、安全的食品和更多的休闲，他们的互联网之爱是疯狂的
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