Tinker, taper
从修补匠到淡出者
The Federal Reserve tries to clarify its goals
美联储努力阐明自己的目标
Jun 22nd 2013 | WASHINGTON, DC |From the print edition
“HE'S already stayed a lot longer than he wanted.” Barack Obama's remark in a TV interview this week fuelled speculation that Ben Bernanke, whose second term as Federal Reserve chairman expires early next year, would soon leave the central-banking game. As Mr Bernanke laboured to communicate the Fed's goals to journalists on June 19th, after the close of its policymaking committee's latest meeting, who could blame him for longing to return to academia?
本周，贝拉克·奥巴马在一次电视采访中说：“他的在职时间早已大大超出了自己的希望。”此言一出，市场上立即充满了对美联储主席本·伯南克即将在明年年初第二任期到期时退出央行游戏的猜测。当伯南克在政策决策委员会最新例会之后的6月19日努力向记者阐明美联储目标时，谁又能为了渴望回归学术研究而责怪他呢？
Since the Fed's main policy interest rate fell to near zero in December 2008 it has deployed a complex array of “unconventional policies” to boost the economy. The Federal Open Market Committee this week ostensibly kept its foot on the gas. It promised to keep adding $85 billion in bonds per month to a stash that has almost quadrupled to $3.4 trillion since the beginning of the recession. It also pledged to keep short-term interest rates near zero.
自主要政策利率在2008年9月降至零附近以来，美联储一直在使用一套复杂的“非常规政策”来振兴经济。从表面上看，美联储公开市场委员会在本周仍旧将脚踩在油门上。美联储承诺继续以每月850亿美元速度增加其债券持有量，自衰退以来，美联储的债券持有量几乎增长了4倍，目前的规模为3.4万亿美元。同时，美联储还承诺将短期利率保持在零附近。
Bond markets are more preoccupied by what lies in the future. Since late April the yield on ten-year Treasury bonds has leapt to more than 2.3% from 1.7%. Mortgage rates have also jumped; riskier assets such as emerging-market stocks have fallen sharply. This amounts to an effective tightening in monetary conditions, brought on by warnings made by Mr Bernanke last month, and reinforced at his press conference this week, that a “tapering” of the pace of asset purchases could get under way later this year.
债券市场更关心的是将来会出现什么情况。自4月下旬以来，10年期国债收益率一路上涨，已经从1.7%上升至2.3%多。抵押贷款利率也在飙升。相比之下，像新兴市场的股票等风险较高的资产却出现了大幅下跌。在本周的新闻发布会上，伯南克再次强调了他在上个月发出的资产购买步伐有可能会在今年晚些时候“逐渐减少”的警告。受此影响，货币环境进入了一种有效紧缩的状态。
Fed officials are doubtless annoyed by the market's skittish reaction to the idea of tapering. In its view a more leisurely pace of buying does not amount to tightening. Fed economists reckon the size of the central bank's balance-sheet is what matters most: so long as its asset pile is growing, policy is getting looser. By the Fed's estimates, halving the monthly rate of asset purchases would be equivalent to trimming the federal-funds rate by five basis points per month instead of ten.
美联储官员无疑会被市场对“逐渐退出”想法所做出的轻率反应感到愤怒。在他们看来，以一种更加惬意的步伐购买资产并不意味着政策的收紧。按照美联储的经济学家们的观点，央行资产负债表的规模才是最重要的：只要其资产规模仍在增加，货币政策就一定会出现松动。按照他们的预计，将每月购买资产的比率减少一半相当于每月将联邦基金利率降低5个基点而不是10个基点。
Furthermore, Mr Bernanke explained, tapering will be closely linked to economic conditions. If unemployment continues to drop and inflation behaves then tapering may begin later this year and continue in stages. If all went well, asset purchases would cease only by the middle of 2014.
伯南克进一步解释说，“逐渐退出”行为将同经济运行状况密切挂扣。如果失业率继续下降，通货膨胀开始露头，届时，“逐渐退出”有可能在今年晚些时候开始分阶段进行。如果一切正常，资产购买计划可能要到2014年中期才会停止。
Yet nothing is straightforward in central banking, particularly when its main interest-rate tool cannot be reduced any more. Expectations about future economic conditions, and the Fed's response to them, become even more critical. When investors dial back their guesses at how large the central bank's balance-sheet will grow, for example, bond yields rise. Similarly, a fall in expected inflation raises the “real” or inflation-adjusted interest rate. So if the Fed wishes to rein in quantitative easing (QE) without hurting the economy, it must convince markets it will not allow inflation to plunge or employment to stumble.
然而，央行从来不直截了当地表明自己的观点，尤其是在主要利率工具不可能再降低的情况下。有关未来经济状况的预测以及美联储对它们的应对变得越来越关键。例如，当投资者调低了他们在对央行资产负债表会增长到何种规模的预测，债券收益率就会上升。同样，通胀预期下降会提高“实际”利率或者是按照通胀调整后的利率。因此，如果美联储希望在不伤害经济的前提条件下逐渐退出量化宽松政策，那么，它必须要让市场相信，它不会允许通胀水平或者就业率出现暴跌。
It is trying. The Fed this week linked the current round of asset purchases to the achievement of economic goals rather than a specific date or programme size as it had in the past. QE would continue, it said, until the outlook for the labour market had improved “substantially”. In his press conference Mr Bernanke clarified what that meant: a drop in the unemployment rate to about 7%.
美联储正在朝着这个方向努力。本周，他们将当前这轮资产购买同经济目标的实现相挂钩，而不是像过去那样，将资产购买同一个特定的日期或者某个计划的规模相挂钩。美联储说，QE仍将持续，直到劳动力市场的前景出现“实质性”的改善为止。对此，伯南克在新闻发布会上做了详尽的阐述。他说，所谓“实质性”改善是指失业率降至7%左右。
Some market participants were reckoning on a more ambitious definition of “substantially”. Labour markets do look healthier now than they did late last year. Employment is growing at 194,000 jobs per month, impressive given the tax rises and spending cuts that have hit the economy. Unemployment has fallen from 8.1% last August to 7.6%, quicker than Fed officials expected when its third bout of QE began in September. Fed officials further lowered their projections for unemployment in the latest meeting. Yet the trend remains mediocre by historical standards; Fed projections put off a return to “full employment” to late 2015 at the earliest.
部分市场参与者正在揣测“实质性”一词确切的含义。如今的劳动力市场看上去确实比去年更健康。就业正在以每月19400个岗位的速度增长，考虑到增税减支对经济的打击，能出现这种情况已经非常不错了。失业率已经从去年8月份的8.1%降至7.6%，这个速度快于美联储官员在去年11月开始实施第三轮QE时做出的预测。在最近一次例会上，他们进一步降低了对失业率的预测。不过，按照历史标准来评判，当前这种势头仍旧差强人意。因此，美联储在预测中将“完全就业”的回归推迟到了最早在2015年下半年才会实现。
Adding to the Fed's communication task is its multi-pronged stimulus approach. The Fed's conditions for tapering on QE are separate from its conditions for keeping interest rates near zero: Mr Bernanke promised last December that rates would stay low at least until unemployment falls to 6.5%. Futures markets have rapidly brought forward their estimate of when the first rate hikes will occur to late 2014 (see chart 1), even though most Fed officials do not expect to raise rates until 2015.
美联储应当把它那种多管齐下式的刺激手段增加到沟通任务中去。美联储为退出QE所设定的条件不同于将利率保持在零附近所设定的条件。因为伯南克曾在去年12月承诺说，利率至少会一直保持在低位，直到失业率降至6.5%为止。尽管大多数美联储官员都不希望在2015年之前提高利率，但是期货市场还是迅速地将他们对美联储第一次提高利率的时间的预测提前到2014年下半年（见表一）。
Another source of market confusion is uncertainty over how the Fed weighs unemployment against other concerns. One is inflation. The Fed's preferred inflation measure showed an annual rise in prices of just 0.7% in April (or 1.05% excluding food and energy). Fed projections suggest inflation is unlikely to top 2% soon (see chart 2). Such low inflation rates hint that the Fed has more room to stimulate the economy and could conceivably justify even more QE in order to fend off the risk of deflation. James Bullard, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis, dissented from this week's policy statement on the ground that sustained inflation below the Fed's target harmed its credibility.
令市场困惑不解的另一个原因是，人们对美联储会依据哪种标准来衡量失业率存在着不确定性。其中之一是通货膨胀。美联储青睐的通胀标准显示，4月份的物价年化增长率仅为0.7%（扣除食品和能源因素之后为1.05%）。美联储的预测显示，他们认为通胀率不可能很快超过2%（见表二）。如此之低的通胀率暗示，美联储仍存在着刺激经济的空间，同时他们还可以拿出确凿的证据来证明，为了远离通缩的风险，即使继续实行QE也是正确的。圣路易斯联邦储备银行行长詹姆斯·布拉德对本周的政策声明持反对态度。他认为，让通胀长期处于既定目标之下会伤害美联储的信誉。
Against that some members of the monetary-policy committee warn of the financial risks posed by QE and low interest rates. A hawkish minority of the Fed's 19 policymakers want bond-buying to end as soon as possible, citing dangerous risk-taking and “asset misallocation”. Mr Bernanke admitted recently that his biggest concern about QE wasn't inflation but “financial stability”. This division within the Fed complicates communication. And with Mr Bernanke's chairmanship potentially nearing an end markets may also question the extent to which his actions could bind his successor.
对此，货币政策委员会的部分成员有不同的意见。他们警告说，受QE和低利率的影响，金融体系会被暴露在风险之中。美联储的19名决策者中的一小部分鹰派人士希望以危险的冒险行为和“资产配置不当”为由尽快结束债券购买计划。伯南克最近在谈到QE时承认，他最大的担心不是通胀而是“金融稳定”。美联储内部的这种分歧导致他们与市场的沟通更加困难。在伯南克的主席任期即将结束的情况下，市场还可能会对他的行为对继任者所造成的限制程度产生疑问。
Events of the past month have raised the stakes. The market gyrations show that investors are reaching for returns amid low rates. Junk-bond mutual funds have been battered in recent weeks as investors temporarily abandoned their quest for yield. Yet the reaction touched off by the mere hint of less QE also underlines the risks of withdrawing stimulus prematurely. The Fed seems set on heading for the exit; it would be wise to walk slowly.
在过去的一个月中发生了一连串的事件，这些事件已经导致了风险的上升。市场的起伏不定表明，投资者正在各种低利率资产中需求回报。随着投资者暂时抛弃了他们对于回报的渴望，垃圾债券基金在过去的数周内遭遇重创。但是，这种仅仅因为美联储暗示要缩小QE规模而带来的反应突显了在时机尚不成熟时退出刺激计划的风险。美联储似乎已经为退出打定了主意；那么，走得慢一点不失为一个明智的决策。
从修补匠到淡出者
The Federal Reserve tries to clarify its goals
美联储努力阐明自己的目标
Jun 22nd 2013 | WASHINGTON, DC |From the print edition
“HE'S already stayed a lot longer than he wanted.” Barack Obama's remark in a TV interview this week fuelled speculation that Ben Bernanke, whose second term as Federal Reserve chairman expires early next year, would soon leave the central-banking game. As Mr Bernanke laboured to communicate the Fed's goals to journalists on June 19th, after the close of its policymaking committee's latest meeting, who could blame him for longing to return to academia?
本周，贝拉克·奥巴马在一次电视采访中说：“他的在职时间早已大大超出了自己的希望。”此言一出，市场上立即充满了对美联储主席本·伯南克即将在明年年初第二任期到期时退出央行游戏的猜测。当伯南克在政策决策委员会最新例会之后的6月19日努力向记者阐明美联储目标时，谁又能为了渴望回归学术研究而责怪他呢？
Since the Fed's main policy interest rate fell to near zero in December 2008 it has deployed a complex array of “unconventional policies” to boost the economy. The Federal Open Market Committee this week ostensibly kept its foot on the gas. It promised to keep adding $85 billion in bonds per month to a stash that has almost quadrupled to $3.4 trillion since the beginning of the recession. It also pledged to keep short-term interest rates near zero.
自主要政策利率在2008年9月降至零附近以来，美联储一直在使用一套复杂的“非常规政策”来振兴经济。从表面上看，美联储公开市场委员会在本周仍旧将脚踩在油门上。美联储承诺继续以每月850亿美元速度增加其债券持有量，自衰退以来，美联储的债券持有量几乎增长了4倍，目前的规模为3.4万亿美元。同时，美联储还承诺将短期利率保持在零附近。
Bond markets are more preoccupied by what lies in the future. Since late April the yield on ten-year Treasury bonds has leapt to more than 2.3% from 1.7%. Mortgage rates have also jumped; riskier assets such as emerging-market stocks have fallen sharply. This amounts to an effective tightening in monetary conditions, brought on by warnings made by Mr Bernanke last month, and reinforced at his press conference this week, that a “tapering” of the pace of asset purchases could get under way later this year.
债券市场更关心的是将来会出现什么情况。自4月下旬以来，10年期国债收益率一路上涨，已经从1.7%上升至2.3%多。抵押贷款利率也在飙升。相比之下，像新兴市场的股票等风险较高的资产却出现了大幅下跌。在本周的新闻发布会上，伯南克再次强调了他在上个月发出的资产购买步伐有可能会在今年晚些时候“逐渐减少”的警告。受此影响，货币环境进入了一种有效紧缩的状态。
Fed officials are doubtless annoyed by the market's skittish reaction to the idea of tapering. In its view a more leisurely pace of buying does not amount to tightening. Fed economists reckon the size of the central bank's balance-sheet is what matters most: so long as its asset pile is growing, policy is getting looser. By the Fed's estimates, halving the monthly rate of asset purchases would be equivalent to trimming the federal-funds rate by five basis points per month instead of ten.
美联储官员无疑会被市场对“逐渐退出”想法所做出的轻率反应感到愤怒。在他们看来，以一种更加惬意的步伐购买资产并不意味着政策的收紧。按照美联储的经济学家们的观点，央行资产负债表的规模才是最重要的：只要其资产规模仍在增加，货币政策就一定会出现松动。按照他们的预计，将每月购买资产的比率减少一半相当于每月将联邦基金利率降低5个基点而不是10个基点。
Furthermore, Mr Bernanke explained, tapering will be closely linked to economic conditions. If unemployment continues to drop and inflation behaves then tapering may begin later this year and continue in stages. If all went well, asset purchases would cease only by the middle of 2014.
伯南克进一步解释说，“逐渐退出”行为将同经济运行状况密切挂扣。如果失业率继续下降，通货膨胀开始露头，届时，“逐渐退出”有可能在今年晚些时候开始分阶段进行。如果一切正常，资产购买计划可能要到2014年中期才会停止。
Yet nothing is straightforward in central banking, particularly when its main interest-rate tool cannot be reduced any more. Expectations about future economic conditions, and the Fed's response to them, become even more critical. When investors dial back their guesses at how large the central bank's balance-sheet will grow, for example, bond yields rise. Similarly, a fall in expected inflation raises the “real” or inflation-adjusted interest rate. So if the Fed wishes to rein in quantitative easing (QE) without hurting the economy, it must convince markets it will not allow inflation to plunge or employment to stumble.
然而，央行从来不直截了当地表明自己的观点，尤其是在主要利率工具不可能再降低的情况下。有关未来经济状况的预测以及美联储对它们的应对变得越来越关键。例如，当投资者调低了他们在对央行资产负债表会增长到何种规模的预测，债券收益率就会上升。同样，通胀预期下降会提高“实际”利率或者是按照通胀调整后的利率。因此，如果美联储希望在不伤害经济的前提条件下逐渐退出量化宽松政策，那么，它必须要让市场相信，它不会允许通胀水平或者就业率出现暴跌。
It is trying. The Fed this week linked the current round of asset purchases to the achievement of economic goals rather than a specific date or programme size as it had in the past. QE would continue, it said, until the outlook for the labour market had improved “substantially”. In his press conference Mr Bernanke clarified what that meant: a drop in the unemployment rate to about 7%.
美联储正在朝着这个方向努力。本周，他们将当前这轮资产购买同经济目标的实现相挂钩，而不是像过去那样，将资产购买同一个特定的日期或者某个计划的规模相挂钩。美联储说，QE仍将持续，直到劳动力市场的前景出现“实质性”的改善为止。对此，伯南克在新闻发布会上做了详尽的阐述。他说，所谓“实质性”改善是指失业率降至7%左右。
Some market participants were reckoning on a more ambitious definition of “substantially”. Labour markets do look healthier now than they did late last year. Employment is growing at 194,000 jobs per month, impressive given the tax rises and spending cuts that have hit the economy. Unemployment has fallen from 8.1% last August to 7.6%, quicker than Fed officials expected when its third bout of QE began in September. Fed officials further lowered their projections for unemployment in the latest meeting. Yet the trend remains mediocre by historical standards; Fed projections put off a return to “full employment” to late 2015 at the earliest.
部分市场参与者正在揣测“实质性”一词确切的含义。如今的劳动力市场看上去确实比去年更健康。就业正在以每月19400个岗位的速度增长，考虑到增税减支对经济的打击，能出现这种情况已经非常不错了。失业率已经从去年8月份的8.1%降至7.6%，这个速度快于美联储官员在去年11月开始实施第三轮QE时做出的预测。在最近一次例会上，他们进一步降低了对失业率的预测。不过，按照历史标准来评判，当前这种势头仍旧差强人意。因此，美联储在预测中将“完全就业”的回归推迟到了最早在2015年下半年才会实现。
Adding to the Fed's communication task is its multi-pronged stimulus approach. The Fed's conditions for tapering on QE are separate from its conditions for keeping interest rates near zero: Mr Bernanke promised last December that rates would stay low at least until unemployment falls to 6.5%. Futures markets have rapidly brought forward their estimate of when the first rate hikes will occur to late 2014 (see chart 1), even though most Fed officials do not expect to raise rates until 2015.
美联储应当把它那种多管齐下式的刺激手段增加到沟通任务中去。美联储为退出QE所设定的条件不同于将利率保持在零附近所设定的条件。因为伯南克曾在去年12月承诺说，利率至少会一直保持在低位，直到失业率降至6.5%为止。尽管大多数美联储官员都不希望在2015年之前提高利率，但是期货市场还是迅速地将他们对美联储第一次提高利率的时间的预测提前到2014年下半年（见表一）。
Another source of market confusion is uncertainty over how the Fed weighs unemployment against other concerns. One is inflation. The Fed's preferred inflation measure showed an annual rise in prices of just 0.7% in April (or 1.05% excluding food and energy). Fed projections suggest inflation is unlikely to top 2% soon (see chart 2). Such low inflation rates hint that the Fed has more room to stimulate the economy and could conceivably justify even more QE in order to fend off the risk of deflation. James Bullard, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis, dissented from this week's policy statement on the ground that sustained inflation below the Fed's target harmed its credibility.
令市场困惑不解的另一个原因是，人们对美联储会依据哪种标准来衡量失业率存在着不确定性。其中之一是通货膨胀。美联储青睐的通胀标准显示，4月份的物价年化增长率仅为0.7%（扣除食品和能源因素之后为1.05%）。美联储的预测显示，他们认为通胀率不可能很快超过2%（见表二）。如此之低的通胀率暗示，美联储仍存在着刺激经济的空间，同时他们还可以拿出确凿的证据来证明，为了远离通缩的风险，即使继续实行QE也是正确的。圣路易斯联邦储备银行行长詹姆斯·布拉德对本周的政策声明持反对态度。他认为，让通胀长期处于既定目标之下会伤害美联储的信誉。
Against that some members of the monetary-policy committee warn of the financial risks posed by QE and low interest rates. A hawkish minority of the Fed's 19 policymakers want bond-buying to end as soon as possible, citing dangerous risk-taking and “asset misallocation”. Mr Bernanke admitted recently that his biggest concern about QE wasn't inflation but “financial stability”. This division within the Fed complicates communication. And with Mr Bernanke's chairmanship potentially nearing an end markets may also question the extent to which his actions could bind his successor.
对此，货币政策委员会的部分成员有不同的意见。他们警告说，受QE和低利率的影响，金融体系会被暴露在风险之中。美联储的19名决策者中的一小部分鹰派人士希望以危险的冒险行为和“资产配置不当”为由尽快结束债券购买计划。伯南克最近在谈到QE时承认，他最大的担心不是通胀而是“金融稳定”。美联储内部的这种分歧导致他们与市场的沟通更加困难。在伯南克的主席任期即将结束的情况下，市场还可能会对他的行为对继任者所造成的限制程度产生疑问。
Events of the past month have raised the stakes. The market gyrations show that investors are reaching for returns amid low rates. Junk-bond mutual funds have been battered in recent weeks as investors temporarily abandoned their quest for yield. Yet the reaction touched off by the mere hint of less QE also underlines the risks of withdrawing stimulus prematurely. The Fed seems set on heading for the exit; it would be wise to walk slowly.
在过去的一个月中发生了一连串的事件，这些事件已经导致了风险的上升。市场的起伏不定表明，投资者正在各种低利率资产中需求回报。随着投资者暂时抛弃了他们对于回报的渴望，垃圾债券基金在过去的数周内遭遇重创。但是，这种仅仅因为美联储暗示要缩小QE规模而带来的反应突显了在时机尚不成熟时退出刺激计划的风险。美联储似乎已经为退出打定了主意；那么，走得慢一点不失为一个明智的决策。
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