China's slowdown
中国的放缓
From a very big base
（别忘了）基数还是很大的
Jan 20th 2015, 10:26 by S.R. | SHANGHAI of The Economist
译者：老狒狒
MUCH of the analysis of China's 2014 GDP data, which the government published today, has focused on the economy's slowdown. That is, on one level, understandable. Growth of 7.4% was China's weakest in 24 years (see chart below). It was also the first time this century that China has missed its official growth target, falling just short of the official goal of 7.5%. But on another level, the focus on the slowdown seems almost myopic. China joined an exclusive club last year: its economic output exceeded $10 trillion, making it only the second country to achieve that feat (America reached this level in 2000). At market exchange rates, China's economic output was $10.3 trillion last year, more than five-times bigger than a mere decade ago, when it was $1.9 trillion.
有关中国政府今天公布的2014年GDP数据的分析大都围绕着经济放缓做文章。从一个层面来讲，这是可以理解的。7.4%的增长是中国在24年中最弱的（如图），也是本世纪第一次没有完成官方增长目标，虽说这个增速只比7.5%的官方目标差那么一点点。但是，从另一个层面来讲，聚焦于放缓是近乎短视的做法。中国已于去年跻身一家高等俱乐部：经济产出超过了10万亿美元，使得他们成为完成这一壮举的仅有的第二个国家（美国已在2000年达到这一水平）。按照市场汇率，中国去年的经济产出是10.3万亿美元，比仅仅10年前的1.9万亿美元大出了5倍。
Moreover, the increase in China's economic size means that slower growth now generates as much additional demand as its turbo-charged growth did just a short time ago. Last year's growth, even with subdued inflation, yielded an extra 4.8 trillion yuan in GDP, almost exactly the same as in 2007, when growth ran to 14.2% and inflation was far higher. And because the economy today includes more labour-intensive services than in the past, China is doing even better at creating new jobs: it added 13.2 million urban jobs last year, compared with 12 million in 2007.
更为重要的是，中国经济规模的增长意味着当前这种较慢的增长能够产生同不久前的快速增长一样多的额外需求。计算是有微弱的通胀，去年的增长也给GDP多带来了4.8万亿元，几乎同增长为14.2%且通胀远远高于现在的2007年持平。再者，由于当前的经济比过去包含更多的劳动密集型服务，因此，中国在创造新工作方面也比以前好了很多：相比2007年的1200万个，中国去年新增了1320万个新工作。
有关中国政府今天公布的2014年GDP数据的分析大都围绕着经济放缓做文章。从一个层面来讲，这是可以理解的。7.4%的增长是中国在24年中最弱的（如图），也是本世纪第一次没有完成官方增长目标，虽说这个增速只比7.5%的官方目标差那么一点点。但是，从另一个层面来讲，聚焦于放缓是近乎短视的做法。中国已于去年跻身一家高等俱乐部：经济产出超过了10万亿美元，使得他们成为完成这一壮举的仅有的第二个国家（美国已在2000年达到这一水平）。按照市场汇率，中国去年的经济产出是10.3万亿美元，比仅仅10年前的1.9万亿美元大出了5倍。
Moreover, the increase in China's economic size means that slower growth now generates as much additional demand as its turbo-charged growth did just a short time ago. Last year's growth, even with subdued inflation, yielded an extra 4.8 trillion yuan in GDP, almost exactly the same as in 2007, when growth ran to 14.2% and inflation was far higher. And because the economy today includes more labour-intensive services than in the past, China is doing even better at creating new jobs: it added 13.2 million urban jobs last year, compared with 12 million in 2007.
更为重要的是，中国经济规模的增长意味着当前这种较慢的增长能够产生同不久前的快速增长一样多的额外需求。计算是有微弱的通胀，去年的增长也给GDP多带来了4.8万亿元，几乎同增长为14.2%且通胀远远高于现在的2007年持平。再者，由于当前的经济比过去包含更多的劳动密集型服务，因此，中国在创造新工作方面也比以前好了很多：相比2007年的1200万个，中国去年新增了1320万个新工作。
This would all be beside the point if China's growth was simply the prelude to a spectacular collapse. But looking beyond the headline GDP figure, China's growth also appears to be slowly becoming better balanced. The big concern since 2009 when China unleashed a mammoth stimulus programme has been the economy's excessive reliance on investment and its sluggish consumption spending. Gross fixed capital formation accounted for 48.3% of China's growth in 2011, well above the peaks of roughly 40% hit by South Korea and Taiwan when they industrialised last century. We will have to wait for a breakdown of GDP by expenditure to get the 2014 figures for China, but the data from today's release point in the right direction.
如果把中国的增长放缓简单地看作是一场大崩溃的序幕，这就错了。但是，从超越整体GDP数字的长远眼光来看，中国的增长也似乎正在慢慢地向更平衡发展。自中国推出庞大刺激计划的2009年开始，外界的一大担忧就是经济对投资的过渡依赖以及消费开支的止步不前。固定资本形成总值占了2011年中国增长的48.3%，远远高于南韩和台湾在上世纪实现工业化时创下的40%这个峰值。我们将不得不再等待一段时间，才能得到按照开支计算的2014年GDP的详细数字。但是，今天发布的数据指向的是正确的方向。
First, even with last year's 'mini-stimulus' to prop up growth, investment is, little by little, playing a diminished role in China's economy. Consumption drove 51.2% of growth last year, up 3 percentage points from a year earlier. With the contribution from trade also positive for growth, China's investment-to-GDP ratio is likely to have declined. This can also be seen from the rising share of services in GDP. Services, which are more closely correlated with consumption than with investment, grew to account for 48.2% of the economy last year, up 1.3 percentage points from 2013.
首先，即便有去年为了提升增长而推出的“微型刺激”，投资在中国经济中的角色正在一点一点地消退。消费推动了去年51.2%的增长，比一年前提高了3个百分点。鉴于来自贸易的贡献也对增长起了正面的作用，投资占中国GDP的比例可能已经下降了。这也可以从服务占GDP比例正在增长这一点中得到证明。相比投资，与消费更加密切相关的服务，已经在去年增长至占经济的48.2%，比2013年高出1.3个百分点。
如果把中国的增长放缓简单地看作是一场大崩溃的序幕，这就错了。但是，从超越整体GDP数字的长远眼光来看，中国的增长也似乎正在慢慢地向更平衡发展。自中国推出庞大刺激计划的2009年开始，外界的一大担忧就是经济对投资的过渡依赖以及消费开支的止步不前。固定资本形成总值占了2011年中国增长的48.3%，远远高于南韩和台湾在上世纪实现工业化时创下的40%这个峰值。我们将不得不再等待一段时间，才能得到按照开支计算的2014年GDP的详细数字。但是，今天发布的数据指向的是正确的方向。
First, even with last year's 'mini-stimulus' to prop up growth, investment is, little by little, playing a diminished role in China's economy. Consumption drove 51.2% of growth last year, up 3 percentage points from a year earlier. With the contribution from trade also positive for growth, China's investment-to-GDP ratio is likely to have declined. This can also be seen from the rising share of services in GDP. Services, which are more closely correlated with consumption than with investment, grew to account for 48.2% of the economy last year, up 1.3 percentage points from 2013.
首先，即便有去年为了提升增长而推出的“微型刺激”，投资在中国经济中的角色正在一点一点地消退。消费推动了去年51.2%的增长，比一年前提高了3个百分点。鉴于来自贸易的贡献也对增长起了正面的作用，投资占中国GDP的比例可能已经下降了。这也可以从服务占GDP比例正在增长这一点中得到证明。相比投资，与消费更加密切相关的服务，已经在去年增长至占经济的48.2%，比2013年高出1.3个百分点。
Second, healthy wage growth means that labour's share of China's economic output rose last year, another critical part of tilting the country towards greater consumption. After controlling for inflation, incomes increased 8% last year, three-fifths of a percentage point faster than the economy as a whole. Importantly, this income growth probably also resulted in a mild improvement in income equality within China because it was rural citizens, poorer than their urban counterparts, who did particularly well. Rural incomes increased 9.2% last year on average, while urban incomes rose 6.8%. The gap between urban and rural incomes peaked at a ratio of 3.3-to-1 in 2009; it fell to about 2.9 last year.
其次，健康的工资增长意味着劳动力在中国经济产出中的份额已在去年有所提高，这是国家向扩大消费倾斜的另一个关键部分。在去除通胀因素后，收入在去年增长了8％，比经济的整体增速快0.6个百分点。重要的是，收入的这种增长也可能给中国的收入平等带来了温和改善的结果。这是因为，比城镇居民更加贫穷的农村居民的收入增加得尤其多。农村居民的收入在去年平均增加了9.2%，与之相比，城镇居民的收入增加了6.8%。农村和城镇居民之间的收入差距曾在2009年达到3.3：1，去年约为2.9：1。
Anytime there is good news to be gleaned from Chinese statistics, it is customary to ask whether the government's numbers can be trusted. This is a fair question given evidence in the past that officials, especially those at the local level, have manipulated data to flatter their performance. It is well known that even Li Keqiang, now China's prime minister, cast doubt on the reliability of local numbers when he was the Communist Party chief of Liaoning province. A divergence between resilient economic growth and the much slower increase in electricity output over the past year has fuelled suspicions that the government is again playing games, since electricity used to be a close proxy for the economy as a whole. But that is an outdated way of looking at the Chinese economy: as the services sector grows more quickly and heavy industry weakens, slower electricity output is to be expected. A 2013 survey of Chinese statistics by Carsten Holz of the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology found no proof of falsification. That said, he also noted that a lack of transparency made it impossible to double-check final data.
每当有来自中国统计局的好消息传出时，质疑政府数字是否可信已经成为惯例。考虑到官员，尤其是地方官员在操纵数据以吹嘘他们的表现方面的过往事实，这是一个公平的问题。众所周知，即便是现总理李克强在辽宁省委书记任上也曾对地方数字的可信性表示怀疑。由于发电量曾是衡量整体经济的一个很接近的标准，因此，去年那种有弹性的经济增长与慢很多的发电量的增长之间的分歧，一直在让人们在怀疑政府是否又在玩数字游戏。但是，以发电量的增长来衡量当前的中国经济已经是一种过时的方式了。这是因为，随着服务部门的增长加快，重工业正在走弱。发电量的放慢是意料之中的事情。由香港科技大学的Carsten Holz对中国2013年统计数据的所做的分析没有发现任何造价的证据。但是，即便如此，他仍旧指出，缺乏透明性使得对最终数据的复查成为不可能。
In this respect it is encouraging that China missed its 2014 growth target. The message from the top of the government is that growth is not as big a priority as in the past. It is a message reinforced by the constant repetition of President Xi Jinping's favourite slogan for describing the economy, the ‘new normal’. That phrase, intended to describe slower but higher-quality growth, was trotted out no fewer than eight times by the statistics bureau during today's GDP news conference.
在这方面，中国宣布没有完成2014年的增长目标是一件令人鼓舞的事情。来自政府高层的信息是：增长的首要地位已经不像过去那样大了，而这个信息又因为不断重复习受习近平所青睐的描述经济现状的“新常态”这个口号得到了再次强化。这个意在描述虽然放缓但质量提高的增长的词汇，被中国统计局在今天的GDP新闻发布会上重复了不下8遍。
The Chinese government's tolerance for the slowdown will be tested in coming months as property investment, the biggest single driver of the economy in recent years, is likely to weaken yet further. The International Monetary Fund has cut its forecast for China's 2015 growth to 6.8%. That would be its weakest performance in 25 years. But when headlines appear about the 25-year low, as they inevitably will, it is worth remembering that the Chinese economy is more than 25-times bigger than it was in 1990.
中国政府对于增长放缓的容忍将随着房地产投资有可能在今后几个月中进一步走弱而面临考验，因为房地产投资是经济在最近几年中的最大单一推动力。国际货币基金组织已将他们对中国2015年的增长预期下调至6.8%，这将是25年中最弱的表现。但是，就在媒体似乎都将不可避免地谈论25年来的这个低点时，值得一提的是：现在的中国经济比1990年大了25倍。
每当有来自中国统计局的好消息传出时，质疑政府数字是否可信已经成为惯例。考虑到官员，尤其是地方官员在操纵数据以吹嘘他们的表现方面的过往事实，这是一个公平的问题。众所周知，即便是现总理李克强在辽宁省委书记任上也曾对地方数字的可信性表示怀疑。由于发电量曾是衡量整体经济的一个很接近的标准，因此，去年那种有弹性的经济增长与慢很多的发电量的增长之间的分歧，一直在让人们在怀疑政府是否又在玩数字游戏。但是，以发电量的增长来衡量当前的中国经济已经是一种过时的方式了。这是因为，随着服务部门的增长加快，重工业正在走弱。发电量的放慢是意料之中的事情。由香港科技大学的Carsten Holz对中国2013年统计数据的所做的分析没有发现任何造价的证据。但是，即便如此，他仍旧指出，缺乏透明性使得对最终数据的复查成为不可能。
In this respect it is encouraging that China missed its 2014 growth target. The message from the top of the government is that growth is not as big a priority as in the past. It is a message reinforced by the constant repetition of President Xi Jinping's favourite slogan for describing the economy, the ‘new normal’. That phrase, intended to describe slower but higher-quality growth, was trotted out no fewer than eight times by the statistics bureau during today's GDP news conference.
在这方面，中国宣布没有完成2014年的增长目标是一件令人鼓舞的事情。来自政府高层的信息是：增长的首要地位已经不像过去那样大了，而这个信息又因为不断重复习受习近平所青睐的描述经济现状的“新常态”这个口号得到了再次强化。这个意在描述虽然放缓但质量提高的增长的词汇，被中国统计局在今天的GDP新闻发布会上重复了不下8遍。
The Chinese government's tolerance for the slowdown will be tested in coming months as property investment, the biggest single driver of the economy in recent years, is likely to weaken yet further. The International Monetary Fund has cut its forecast for China's 2015 growth to 6.8%. That would be its weakest performance in 25 years. But when headlines appear about the 25-year low, as they inevitably will, it is worth remembering that the Chinese economy is more than 25-times bigger than it was in 1990.
中国政府对于增长放缓的容忍将随着房地产投资有可能在今后几个月中进一步走弱而面临考验，因为房地产投资是经济在最近几年中的最大单一推动力。国际货币基金组织已将他们对中国2015年的增长预期下调至6.8%，这将是25年中最弱的表现。但是，就在媒体似乎都将不可避免地谈论25年来的这个低点时，值得一提的是：现在的中国经济比1990年大了25倍。
remark:某种角度来说人们对中国GDP增速放缓那么关注是可以理解的。7.4%的增长是中国在24年中最弱的（如图），也是本世纪第一次没有完成官方增长目标，虽说这个增速只比7.5%的官方目标差那么一点点。但是，从另一个层面来讲，把注意力聚焦于放缓可以说是一种短视的做法
2/ 【别忘了经济基数】中国已于去年跻身经济产出超10万亿美元国家的高等俱乐部，使得他们成为完成这一壮举的第二个国家（美国是在2000年达到这一水平的）。按照市场汇率，中国去年的经济产出是10.3万亿美元，比10年前的1.9万亿美元大出了5倍
3/ 计算是有微弱的通胀，去年的增长也给GDP多带来了4.8万亿元，几乎同增长为14.2%且通胀远远高于现在的2007年持平。再者，由于当前的经济比过去包含更多的劳动密集型服务，因此，中国在创造新工作方面也比以前好了很多：相比2007年的1200万个，中国去年新增了1320万个新工作
4/ 虽然数据我没有核实，但在这篇文章说出了我的心里话。中国已经是这么庞大的一个经济体，中国人早已不是30年前那么穷了，因此完全没必要天天患“失速恐惧症”。慢一些但更有质量的增长是可以期待的。
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