本周的北京峰会起到了应有的作用。但是大国的对抗仍在威胁亚太地区。
Nov 15th 2014 | From the print edition
IN CHINA even a handshake is an expression of power. When Xi Jinping met Barack Obama in Beijing this week at the Asia-Pacific Economic Co-operation (APEC) summit, Mr Xi stood on the right, his body open towards the cameras in an attitude of confident strength. The visitor was required to approach him, as if paying tribute, from the left, shoulder defensively towards the photographers. These days, from the smallest details of summit choreography to the biggest global issues, the rivalry between China and America trumps everything.
在中国，纵然是一次握手也是权力的展示。本周，当习近平在北京的APEC峰会上与奥巴马会见时，习站在右边，身体张开，以一种对自身力量充满自信的态度，面向镜头。客人被要求从左边向他走去，好像是在表示敬意，肩膀以一种防御性的姿态侧对摄影师。如今，小至峰会的舞步编排细节，大到全球性问题，中美之间的对抗是压倒一切的事情。
On the face if it, diplomacy triumphed this week. There was an even more momentous handshake—the long-awaited, reluctant one between Mr Xi and Shinzo Abe, the Japanese prime minister, which signalled a lowering of tensions over disputed islands. Mr Xi and the president of the Philippines, Benigno Aquino, had a “meeting of minds” over a separate maritime matter. China and South Korea agreed a trade deal of their own. And America and China made real progress on climate change, visas, trade and security. Compared with the torpor and occasional ill-temper of previous APEC summits, this was visionary stuff, and the summitry is now moving on to Myanmar and Australia. The trouble is that all this is only a first step in diffusing the tensions in the Pacific created by the rise of China and Americas relative decline.
单从表面来看，外交是本周的主题。［除习奥会之外，］习近平与日本首相安倍晋三之间的那次期待已久的勉强握手甚至更加重要，因为它显示了中日两国就有争议岛屿而引发的对峙已经有所缓和。习近平和菲律宾总统阿基诺三世就两国间的海洋事务“交换了意见”。中国和韩国达成了一项两国间的贸易协定。美国和中国在气候变化、签证、贸易和安全等方面取得了真正的进步。之前的APEC峰会，气氛沉闷，不时出现不友好的场面。相比之下，本届峰会内容充实，富有远见。如今，各国领导人将移师缅甸和澳大利亚。问题在于，所有这一切只是缓和亚太地区紧张态势的第一步，而造成这种紧张态势的原因是中国的崛起和美国的相对衰落。
I'm sailing right behind—in a gunboat
我就在后面驾船前行——不过是在军舰中
Ever since the second world war, America's naval might has guaranteed Asia's security. Richard Nixon's visit to Beijing in 1972 was celebrated because it aligned America and China against Soviet Russia. But it also signalled China's willingness to help America end the Vietnam war, and thus to tolerate an Asian pax Americana. Those days are now at an end.
二战结束以来，美国的海上力量始终是亚洲的安全保障。尼克松的1972年北京之行之所以如此受重视，是因为那次访问让美中两个国家成为了盟友以应对苏联。但是，它还是中国愿意协助美国结束越战的信号，因而也是中国容忍美国主导亚洲和平的信号。如今，这样的日子已经一去不复返了。
China's economy will soon overtake America's to become the world's largest. China is once again in league with Russia—on November 9th the two signed another huge gas deal. In a head-on war China's armed forces would be no match for America's. But their growing strength will increasingly keep America at arm's length, prevent it from protecting Taiwan and pose a threat to its bases in South Korea and Japan. Mr Xi could not have been clearer when he declared, earlier this year, “It is for the people of Asia to…uphold the security of Asia.”
中国将在不久后超越美国成为世界第一大经济体。中国已经再次同俄罗斯结盟——11曰9日，两国又签署了一份大型天然气合同。如果正面交锋，中国军队可能不是美军的对手。但是，他们日渐增长的实力将会让美国鞭长莫及，不仅能够阻止美国保护台湾，还能对美国在日本和韩国的基地施加威胁。习近平曾在今年早些时候再清楚不过地表明：“亚洲的安全应由亚洲人自己来维持。”
China's growth is not the only reason for change. As our special report in this issue sets out, the Pacific rim as a whole has become too prosperous and too complex for the ocean to be either America's lake or China's. The Asian middle class has increased sevenfold since 2000. In Latin America, by contrast, it has merely doubled. Asian countries, including South Korea, have become influential actors in world trade. America is their chief ally and China their largest trading partner. They do not want to be satellites of either.
中国的日渐强大不是导致地位变化的唯一原因。正如本期专题报道所说，亚太地区，作为一个整体，在变得繁荣富强的同时，也变得非常复杂起来。因而，无论是美国还是中国，都无法将太平洋视为自己的湖泊。自2000年以来，亚洲的中产已经增长了7倍。与此相比，拉丁美洲的中产只增长了2倍。以韩国为代表的一些亚洲国家已经成为世界贸易中有影响力的角色。美国是他们的主要盟友，中国是他们最大的贸易伙伴。他们不想成为两国之中任何一个国家的卫星国。
Unfortunately, pax Americana is giving way to a balance of power that is seething with rivalry and insecurity. Everywhere China sees American plots designed to prevent its rise. American alliances contain it, foreign-funded NGOs undermine the Communist Party, and spiesfoment protests in Hong Kong and among the Uighurs in Xinjiang. In August a Chinese fighter-jet and an American surveillance plane passed within 20 feet, just avoiding a mid-air collision. Perhaps because Mr Xi and Mr Obama understand that this could have plunged the two superpowers into crisis they pledged this week to improve military communications. Smaller countries, for their part, are alarmed by Chinese bullying—especially over disputed claims to rocks, shoals, reefs and sandbanks around China's coastline. Chinese high-handedness drove Myanmar towards the West and provoked anti-China riots in Vietnam this year. Asia is arming itself. In the five years to 2013 it accounted for 47% of global weapons imports, up from 40% in 2004-08.
不幸的是，美国主导亚洲和平的局面已经让位于一种激荡着对抗和不安全的均势。在中国看来，周围全都是美国用以遏制她崛起的阴谋。美国的盟友在牵制她，外国资助的非政府组织在削弱共产党的基础，间谍在香港和新疆的维族人中煽动抗议示威。8月，一架中国战机与一架美国侦察机擦肩而过。当时两机之间的距离只有20英尺，刚好避免了一次空中相撞。也许是因为习近平和奥巴马都认识到这可能会让两个超级大国陷入危机，因此两人在本周承诺加强军事交流。较小的国家已经对中国的盛气凌人有所警觉，有其是对中国对其海岸线周边的那些岩石、浅滩、礁石和沙洲的有争议的主权诉求。中国的强硬迫使缅甸转向了西方，并且在今年还激起了越南国内的反中骚乱。亚洲正在武装自己。在截止2013年的5年中，亚洲的武器进口占全球武器进口量的比例，已经从2004－2008年的40％提高到了47％。
America, naturally, wants to maintain the status quo. Mr Obama, who grew up in Hawaii, stressed this week that his is a “thoroughly Pacific nation”. But American diplomacy is at best distracted and at worst divisive. Rhetoric about “pivoting” and “rebalancing” towards Asia was meant to reassure America's allies; instead it fed Chinese paranoia. China appreciates Western-inspired rules in commerce. But America's ambivalence over whether China will one day be welcome to join its grand trade deal, the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), has allowed even that to become a source of tension. As China grows, it deserves a bigger role in international institutions, yet Congress has blocked reforms to give China more clout in the IMF.
美国自然想维持现状。本周，在夏威夷长大的奥巴马强调说，美国是一个“完完全全的太平洋国家”。但是，美国的外交政策，往好里说是心不在焉，往坏里说就是引发争端的祸根。有关“转向”亚洲和“再平衡”亚洲的言辞，本意是想安抚美国的盟友；如今，这些言辞反而引起了中国的猜忌。在贸易方面，中国是欣赏西方所倡导的各种规则的。但是，美国在是否欢迎中国将来加入其宏大的贸易协定——跨太平洋伙伴关系（TPP）问题上的举棋不定，已经使得这一协定成为紧张态势的根源。随着中国的强大，这个国家应当在各种国际机构中享有更大的权力。不过，美国国会已经把授予中国在国际货币基金组织中更大角色的改革挡了回去。
All this has encouraged China to set up its own clubs—its own trade deal, its own development bank and its own regional-security grouping. The bank may be useful, but this approach will not serve China well. Global institutions such as the world trading and financial systems, freedom of navigation and international action on climate change are vital for the country's prosperity. China weakens them at its peril.
所有这一切都在鼓励中国建立自己的俱乐部——自己的贸易协定，自己的发展银行和自己的地区安全组织。建立银行可能会对中国有所帮助。但是，这种策略将不会很好地服务于中国。对于中国的繁荣来说，世界贸易体系、金融体系、航行自由和应对气候变化的国际行动等全球性的制度和机构是非常关键的。中国削弱这些体系和机构的行为是在冒险。
All your dreams are on their way
梦想就在路上
Rather than entrench rivalries by creating two parallel systems, the Pacific powers should focus on adapting today's institutions. Trade could become the exemplar. TPP should be a symbol of America's commitment to the Pacific; with more effort, Mr Obama could sell it to both a pro-business Republican Congress and a foot-dragging Japan. By making vigorous efforts to get China to join, America could signal that it wants to build an inclusive world order. More than that, TPP could show the nationalists in Beijing that a rules-based international system will benefit China more than great-power jockeying. Asia needs such institutions in almost every sphere.
亚太强国不应当通过制造两种平行的体系来强化对抗。相反，他们应当把精力放在融入现有制度上面。贸易可以成为范例。TPP应当成为美国对亚太承诺的象征；多一份努力，奥巴马就能够把这个贸易协定同时兜售给重商的共和党国会和采取拖延战术的日本。只要积极努力以让中国加入其中，美国就能够发出想要建立一个包容性世界秩序的信号。除此之外，TPP还能够向北京的民族主义者展示，一个建立在规则基础之上的国际体系，将比两个大国之间的你争我斗更有益于中国。亚洲在几乎每一个领域都需要这样的秩序。
Nineteenth-century Europe discovered how difficult it is to use the balance of power to keep the peace. For decades it laboured to absorb the rise of Wilhelmine Germany and Imperial Russia, and the decline of Austria-Hungary, before succumbing to war in 1914 in a fit of nationalistic fervour. A lot of blood had to be spilled before the Atlantic countries understood that institutions—NATO, the UN and even the unloved European Union—are needed to shore up international relations. Let us hope that the Pacific, cradle of so many of the world's hopes, can reach that understanding by peaceful means.
欧洲曾在19世纪时发现，运用均势来维持和平是非常困难的。欧洲曾用了几十年的时间来消化和吸收德国与俄国的崛起，以及奥匈帝国的衰落，结果还是在1914年带着民族主义的狂热走向了战争。当这些大西洋国家理解了北约、联合国甚至是不受欢迎的欧盟这些制度之于国际关系的必要性之前，鲜血已经撒遍了他们的国土。我们希望，作为众多世界期望之摇篮的亚太地区，能够通过和平的方式对此心领神会。
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