Eighth time unlucky 第八次倒霉

Argentina defaults 阿根廷债务违约 Eighth time unlucky 第八次倒霉 Cristina Fernández argues that her country’s latest default is different. She is missing the point 克里斯蒂娜.费尔南德斯（Cristina Fernández）辩称阿根廷此次债务违约有所不同，此言差矣 Aug 2nd 2014 | From the print edition 1 ARGENTINA’S first bond, issued in 1824, was supposed to have a lifespan of 46 years. Less than four years later, the government defaulted. Resolving the ensuing stand-off with creditors took 29 years. Since then seven more defaults have followed, the most recent this week, when Argentina failed to make a payment on bonds issued as partial compensation to victims of the previous default, in 2001. 阿根廷于1824年发行的第一批国债是预计有46年寿命的，结果不到4年，政府就债务违约了。阿根廷政府解决和债务人僵持的局面就用了29年。随后又出现了7次债务违约，最近一次是在本周：阿根廷政府无力偿付债券，这些债券是作为2001年阿根廷上一次债务违约中的受害者的部分赔偿的。 2 Most investors think they can see a pattern in all this, but Argentina’s president, Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, insists the latest default is not like the others. Her government, she points out, had transferred the full $539m it owed to the banks that administer the bonds. It is America’s courts (the bonds were issued under American law) that blocked the payment, at the behest of the tiny minority of owners of bonds from 2001 who did not accept the restructuring Argentina offered them in 2005 and again in 2010. These “hold-outs”, balking at the 65% haircut the restructuring entailed, not only persuaded a judge that they should be paid in full but also got him to freeze payments on the restructured bonds until Argentina coughs up. 多数投资者认为可以从中看到一种模式，但阿根廷总统克里斯蒂娜坚称此次违约不同以往。她指出政府已经向发行国债的债权银行汇入了整整5.39亿美元，是美国法庭（阿根廷国债的发行遵循美国法律）在少数债权人的指使下阻碍阿政府清偿。这些2001年违约后遗留下来的“钉子户债权人”拒绝了阿根廷于2005年和2010年提供的债务重组方案，因为他们对重组中65%的野蛮折价望而却步。他们说服法官裁决阿根廷全额偿还本息，而且在阿根廷还钱之前冻结其重组债券的还款。 3 Argentina claims that paying the hold-outs was impossible. It is not just that they are “vultures”  as Argentine officials often put it, who bought the bonds for cents on the dollar after the previous default and are now holding those who accepted the restructuring (accounting for 93% of the debt) to ransom. The main problem is that a clause in the restructured bonds prohibits Argentina from offering the hold-outs better terms without paying everyone else the same. Since it cannot afford to do that, it says it had no choice but to default. 阿根廷声称偿还钉子户是不可能的，不仅因为他们是阿根廷官员常说的“秃鹫基金”。这些债权人于上次违约后低价买入债券，希望获得高额利润，现在又以接受重组（重组债务占了所有债务的93%）的债权人来要挟阿根廷还款。主要问题是重组债券中有条款规定所有人待遇相同，禁止单独给钉子户债权人开出更好条件。阿根廷政府称由于无力全额偿还所有人，别无选择只能违约。 4 Yet it is not certain that the clause requiring equal treatment of all bondholders would have applied, given that Argentina would not have been paying the hold-outs voluntarily, but on the courts’ orders. Moreover, some owners of the restructured bonds had agreed to waive their rights; had Argentina made a concerted effort to persuade the remainder to do the same, it might have succeeded. Lawyers and bankers have suggested various ways around the clause in question, which expires at the end of the year. But Argentina’s government was slow to consider these options or negotiate with the hold-outs, hiding instead behind indignant nationalism (see article).  不过鉴于阿根廷只有在法庭裁决下才会被迫偿还钉子户，这条要求平等对待所有债权人的条款也就未必生效了。而且部分重组债券持有人已经同意放弃权利，只要阿根廷团结一致说服其他人也放弃权利，也许就能成功。条款将于年底失效，律师和银行家提出了许多应对这条规定的建议，但阿根廷政府直到为时已晚才开始考虑这些建议并与钉子户协商，此前都只是在愤慨地宣泄民族主义情绪（另见文）。 Don’t try to flee, Argentina 别想逃，阿根廷 5 Ms Fernández is right that the consequences of America’s court rulings have been perverse, unleashing a big financial dispute in an attempt to solve a relatively small one. But hers is not the first government to be hit with an awkward verdict. Instead of railing against it, she should have tried to minimise the harm it did. Defaulting has helped no one: none of the bondholders will now be paid, Argentina looks like a pariah again, and its economy will remain starved of loans and investment. 克里斯蒂娜声称美国法庭的裁决带来了严重后果，在解决较小的金融纠纷时将小事化大了。的确如此。不过阿根廷政府不是第一个遭受糟糕裁决的政府，相比厉声谴责，她更应该做的是试图将伤害减到最小。违约损人害己：所有债权人都得不到清偿，阿根廷又会变成经济贱民，缺乏借贷和投资。 6 Happily, much of the damage can still be undone. It is not too late to strike a deal with the hold-outs or back an ostensibly private effort to buy out their claims. A quick fix would make it easier for Argentina to borrow again internationally. That, in turn, would speed development of big oil and gas deposits, the income from which could help ease its money troubles. 幸运的是，很多伤害还能弥补。现在和钉子户达成协议或者佯装成第三方买下他们的债权都还不晚。迅速解决问题有利于阿根廷再次进行国际借贷，反过来也能快速增加石油和天然气存款，从中得到的收益将有助于阿根廷解决资金问题。 7 More important, it would help to change perceptions of Argentina as a financial rogue state. Over the past year or so Ms Fernández seems to have been trying to rehabilitate Argentina’s image and resuscitate its faltering economy. She settled financial disputes with government creditors and with Repsol, a Spanish oil firm whose Argentine assets she had expropriated in 2012. This week’s events have overshadowed all that. For its own sake, and everyone else’s, Argentina should hold its nose and do a deal with the hold-outs. 更重要的是，这将有助于阿根廷改变金融流氓国家的形象。过去一年来，克里斯蒂娜似乎一直在试图改善阿根廷的形象，拯救摇摇欲坠的经济。她和债权人及Repsol协商解决经济纠纷——Repsol是一家西班牙石油公司，克里斯蒂娜于2012年没收了该公司的阿根廷资产。本周的违约给上述所有努力都蒙上了一层阴影。为了它自己，也为了其他人，阿根廷应该忍气吞声与钉子户达成协议。 From the print edition: Leaders _________________________________________________________ 译者注： 1 秃鹫基金(Vulture hedge fund)。传统的秃鹫基金指的是那些通过收购违约债券，通过恶意诉讼，谋求高额利润的基金。秃鹫基金通常喜欢购买陷于困境的公司债券，等公司无法偿付的时候，就开始打官司索取巨额赔偿。

克里斯蒂娜, 费尔南德斯, different, defaults, country

Remark:阿根廷于1824年发行的第一批国债是预计有46年寿命的，结果不到4年，政府就债务违约了。阿根廷政府解决和债务人僵持的局面就用了29年。随后又出现了7次债务违约，最近一次是在本周：阿根廷政府无力偿付债券，这些债券是作为2001年阿根廷上一次债务违约中的受害者的部分赔偿的

2/幸运的是，很多伤害还能弥补。现在和钉子户达成协议或者佯装成第三方买下他们的债权都还不晚。迅速解决问题有利于阿根廷再次进行国际借贷，反过来也能快速增加石油和天然气存款，从中得到的收益将有助于阿根廷解决资金问题。更重要的是，这将有助于阿根廷改变金融流氓国家的形象

3/部分重组债券持有人已经同意放弃权利，只要阿根廷团结一致说服其他人也放弃权利，也许就能成功。条款将于年底失效，律师和银行家提出了许多应对这条规定的建议，但阿根廷政府直到为时已晚才开始考虑这些建议并与钉子户协商，此前都只是在愤慨地宣泄民族主义情绪