Terror's new headquarters 恐怖的新巢穴

The capture of Mosul
摩苏尔之被占
Terror's new headquarters
恐怖的新巢穴

Iraq's second city has fallen to a group that wants to create a state from which to wage jihad around the world
伊拉克第二大城市已落入一伙想要建立一个国家并以之为基地向全球发动圣战的恐怖组织的手中

Jun 14th 2014 | From the print edition



SO ABSOLUTE was the rout of Iraq's army in Mosul that soldiers stripped off their uniforms in the street and fled. The bodies of those left behind, some mutilated, were strewn amid burned-out troop carriers. Roughly 1,500 jihadists from the Islamic State of Iraq and Greater Syria (ISIS), outnumbered by more than 15 to one, reportedly seized six Black Hawk helicopters as well as untold plunder from the vaults of Mosul's banks. They released thousands of prisoners from Mosul's jails. As the black flag of jihad rose above government buildings, as many as half a million refugees sought sanctuary.

可以用“兵败如山倒”来形容伊拉克政府军在摩苏尔的惨败：士兵纷纷脱下军装，仓皇逃命。大街上，到处是还在冒烟的运兵车和被抛弃的尸体，有的已经残缺不全。据报道，大约1500名“伊拉克和大叙利亚伊斯兰国”（the Islamic State of Iraq and Greater Syria，简称ISIS。又译为“伊拉克和黎凡特伊斯兰国”——译者注）的圣战者，以15：1的优势兵力，在缴获了6架黑鹰直升机的同时，还从摩苏尔银行的保险库中获得了数不清的战利品。除此之外，他们还释放了摩苏尔监狱中的数千名囚犯。就在圣战者的黑色旗帜在政府建筑上升起之时，多达50万的难民正在四处寻求庇护。

Two and a half years ago, as the last American troops left, President Barack Obama described Iraq as “sovereign, stable and self-reliant”. Today jihadists are tearing the country apart. Mosul is its second city. On June 10th the prime minister, Nuri al-Maliki, called for a state of emergency and pleaded for outside help. The next day, in league with rebellious Iraqi Sunnis, ISIS took Tikrit, the home of Saddam Hussein, just two and a half hours' drive north of Baghdad.

两年半之前，在最后一批美军撤离时，奥巴马总统曾把伊拉克描绘为一个“拥有主权的、稳定的、独立自主”的国家。如今，圣战者正在撕裂这个国家。摩苏尔是该国第二大城市。6月10日，总理努里·马利基下令全国进入紧急状态，同时还向外国发出了求助请求。第二天，在反叛的伊拉克逊尼派的配合下，ISIS占领了提克里特。这里是萨达姆·侯赛因的老家，距巴格达只有两个半个小时车程。

In coming weeks the jihadists may fall prey to overstretch (see article). Perhaps Iraq's humiliated army will muster the resolve to make a stand, or even retake Mosul. But, with its symbolic victories and an endless supply of young men, that will be of little comfort. ISIS aims to redraw the map of the Middle East by creating a Sunni state, starting with eastern Syria and the heart of Iraq. Its brand of militancy is spreading poison and terror across the Arab world. One day, if they have their way, ISIS's suicide-bombers will also target Europe and America. Without a change of heart in Baghdad and Washington, ISIS and groups like it will continue to cause mayhem. Even with a new approach, it will be hard to stop the jihad.

在未来的几周内，圣战分子可能会战线过长而败下阵来。受辱的伊拉克军队可能会聚集士气坚守城池，甚至还有可能夺回摩苏尔。但是，考虑到摩苏尔之战的象征意义以及不断有年轻人加入ISIS，这些可能性只不过是一点安慰罢了。ISIS的目标是通过建立一个始于叙利亚东部直至伊拉克中部的逊尼派国家来重新划定中东版图。以好战闻名的ISIS正在阿拉伯世界传播毒药和恐怖。如果将来有一天他们真得实现自己的目标，他们的自杀袭击者也会瞄准欧洲和美国。如果巴格达和华盛顿不转变态度，ISIS以及类似的组织会继续引发混乱。即便是有了新的对策，也难以阻止圣战。

Too alarming for al-Qaeda
让基地组织感到不安

ISIS is born of regional warfare and Islamic fundamentalism. Battling against Bashar Assad in Syria, it recruited foreign fighters, some of them veterans. In the anarchy of Syria and Iraq, it has stuffed its robes with cash from kidnapping and extortion, and gained enough battlefield experience to outclass Iraq's soldiery. It is so zealous and bloodthirsty that other rebel groups in Syria have turned against it. Even al-Qaeda renounced it, partly because al-Qaeda does not approve of the idea of creating a state just now, and partly because of ISIS's savagery, including towards fellow Muslims.

ISIS脱胎于地区性战争和伊斯兰原教旨主义。在叙利亚，他们在与巴沙尔·阿萨德的交战中招募了大量的外国士兵，其中有些人是退役的老兵。在叙利亚和伊拉克乱世中，他们通过绑架和强夺，扩充了自己财力，并且还积累起了足以击败伊拉克政府军的战场经验。这是一伙狂热而嗜血的恐怖分子，不仅叙利亚境内的其他反叛武装已经转而反对他们，就连“基地”组织也断绝了同他们的关系。究其原因，一是因为“基地组织”不赞成现在就建立一个国家，二是因为ISIS的行为过于残暴，甚至就连对待穆斯林同胞也是如此。

Too violent for mainstream Syria's rebels, too extreme for al-Qaeda, ISIS has many parents. At the start of the war in Syria, Turkey let foreign fighters cross its borders freely. European governments have handed ISIS millions of dollars to buy the freedom of kidnapped citizens. Mr Assad cynically helped ISIS gain an edge over the rest of the Syrian rebels by releasing extremists from his jails and selectively sparing it from attacks. He wanted the world to withhold aid for his opponents, for fear of what might come after him. It worked.

过于暴力（对于叙利亚主流反叛组织来说）、过于极端（对基地组织来说）的ISIS的成员来自世界各地。在叙利亚内战刚开始那会儿，土耳其曾听任外国圣战者自由地穿越边界；欧洲国家为了让遭绑架的公民重获自由，曾交给ISIS数百万美元；阿萨德为了让担心在他之后的叙利亚不知会走向何处的国家社会收回对反对派的支持，曾利用释放监狱中的极端分子并且有选择性地让他们免受攻击的方法，帮助ISIS赢得了对其他叙利亚反叛组织优势，这种策略已经奏效了。

But the blame also lies with Mr Maliki in Iraq and with Mr Obama. Mr Maliki has governed as a proto-dictator on behalf of the Shia majority. The army has rotted as he has purged independent-minded officers and put his own men in their place. Just after the last American troops left Iraq, in 2011, he ordered the arrest of the Sunni vice-president—who promptly fled. He failed to maintain links with the Sunni clans who drove al-Qaeda and ISIS's forerunner out once before, during the American occupation. He has used live fire on peaceful Sunni protesters. At the same time, life in Mr Maliki's Iraq is miserable. Because of ISIS, monthly death rates have climbed back to the levels of 2008; the rule of law is weaker than in the time of Saddam; corruption is rife and the lack of jobs and education means that prospects are bleak.

不过，伊拉克的马利基和奥巴马也有责任。代表什叶派多数派的马利基，在管理这个国家时，一直以来表现的就像是一个独裁者。他一直在排挤有独立思想的军官，并且还把自己的人安插到他们的位置上，有鉴于此，伊拉克的军队已经腐烂了。就在最后一批美军于2011年撤离后不久，他曾下令逮捕逊尼派的副总统，使得那位副总统闻讯后立即逃离了伊拉克。他没能维持住曾在美国占领期间将基地组织和ISIS的先遣部队赶出伊拉克的逊尼派部族的联系。他一直在使用实弹对付和平的逊尼派示威者。与此同时，马利基之伊拉克的生活是悲惨的。由于ISIS的存在，月死亡率已经回升至2008年的水平。法治比萨达姆时代还要虚弱。腐败猖獗，就业困难，教育缺失。所有这一切都意味着前景是荒凉的。

A state of jihad
圣战之国

Mr Obama has helped ISIS by omission. No doubt, his predecessor's decision to go to war—which we mistakenly backed at the time—was a disaster. But in quitting Iraq Mr Obama failed to win an agreement that left some American troops behind, or that provided American aerial support. Only last month he refused Mr Maliki's calls for American airstrikes against the Jihadists. And in Syria, as many warned, the predictable outcome of Mr Obama's vow to prevent America being sucked in has been to create a terrorist threat so grave that it risks sucking America into an even worse mess.

奥巴马的疏忽帮助了ISIS。前任发动战争的决定——当时我们曾错误地支持过这个决定——是一场灾难，这是毫无疑问的。但是，在从伊拉克撤军这个问题上，奥巴马一直没能谈成一份能让部分美军留下来或是可以提供空中支援的协议。就在上个月，他还拒绝了马利基呼吁美国对圣战者发动空中打击的请求。在叙利亚问题上，正如许多人所警告的那样，奥巴马有关防止美国被迫卷入的誓言所带来的结果之可以预测，使得它对恐怖分子造成的威胁是如此之严重，以至于美国正在冒着陷入更加糟糕境地的危险。

ISIS may now catalyse the disintegration of Iraq and Syria. Armed with weapons seized in Mosul and cash to pay its troops it can more easily hold its ground. In Iraq the Kurds may get their own state, which would leave a Shia-dominated rump under Mr Maliki at risk of communal violence. ISIS's freedom to range through parts of Syria and Iraq creates a breeding ground for global terror. Although the group's focus today is on territory, its people say that their targets include the wider region and the West. Hundreds of ISIS fighters may have European passports. Already, in eastern Syria, the group has built training camps. That is worryingly reminiscent of Osama bin Laden's set-up in Afghanistan.

如今的ISIS可能会促使伊拉克和叙利亚走向解体。有了在摩苏尔缴获的武器和军饷后，ISIS能够更容易守住已有地盘。伊拉克境内的库尔德人可能也想建立一个自己的国家，这会让马利基治下的什叶派政府处于双重暴力的风险之中。ISIS能够自由地来往于伊叙两国的事实为全球恐怖活动创造的是一个滴血的基地。尽管ISIS把当前重点放在占领地盘方面，但是从其成员的言语中可以看出，他们的目标是要占领更广大的地区和西方。数百名ISIS的成员或许已经拥有欧洲护照。他们早以在叙利亚东部建立了训练营。一想到本·拉丹曾在阿富汗有过这样的举动，这不能不令人感到忧虑。

ISIS can be stopped. Its fighters are not numerous—it has up to 11,000 of them, boosted by the recruits it picks up along the way and the prisoners it frees from jails. Following elections that he won last month, Mr Maliki is struggling to form a coalition. The capture of Mosul gives him the chance to abandon Shia triumphalism and to form a government for all Iraqis, including moderate Sunnis and Kurds. That would help curb ISIS, especially if the Kurds committed their peshmerga militiamen to the fight. It might also persuade local Sunni groups backing ISIS to stop. Mr Obama can arm and train Iraqi soldiers and squeeze ISIS in Syria by doing more to arm and train moderate rebels. Only they have the local knowledge and the desire to see off ISIS and other zealots. Yet Mr Obama is so reluctant to devote resources to the opposition that one of his best Arabists has resigned in frustration.

ISIS是可以被阻止的。它的战斗人员并非不计其数——加起来总共有11000人，主要是沿途招募来的士兵以及被从监狱中解放出来的囚犯。在赢得上个月的大选后，马利基正在努力组建一个联合政府。摩苏尔之被占给了他放弃什叶派的胜利主义，并进而形成一个包括温和的什叶派和库尔德人在内的、能够代表所有伊拉克人的政府的机会。这会有助于剿灭ISIS，特别是如果库尔德人能将他们的民兵组织投入战斗的话。这还有可能会说服当地的逊尼派不再支持ISIS。奥巴马可以为伊拉克士兵提供武装和训练，同时还可以以同样的方式帮助叙利亚境内的温和反叛组织赶走ISIS。只有他们了解当地的情况，同时也只有他们渴望赶走ISIS和其他的狂热者。然而，奥巴马仍旧不情愿为反对派提供资源，这使得他的阿拉伯问题专家中最好的一位已在失望中辞职而去。

Fighting ISIS may not work. Even if Mr Maliki prevails, another violent group could rise from the ashes of war in Syria or Iraq. But not fighting it means more bloodshed in the Middle East—and very likely in the rest of the world, too.

同ISIS交战可能不会取胜。就算马利基占了上风，另一个暴力组织也可能会在叙利亚和伊拉克的战争废墟中崛起。但是，不与其交战就意味着中东地区会有更多的流血，并且还很有可能给世界其他地方带来流血。
Remark:可以用“兵败如山倒”来形容伊拉克政府军在摩苏尔的惨败：士兵纷纷脱下军装，仓皇逃命。大街上，到处是还在冒烟的运兵车和被抛弃的尸体，有的已经残缺不全。据报道，大约1500名“伊拉克和黎凡特伊斯兰国”的圣战者，击败了15倍的优势兵力，缴获了6架黑鹰直升机和数不清的战利品