再次登上世界的顶峰，美国企业一马当先

Business
商业

On top of the world again
再次登上世界的顶峰

Corporate America surges ahead
美国企业一马当先

Nov 18th 2013 | NEW YORK | From The World In 2014 print edition


On March 6th 2009, six months after the collapse of Lehman Brothers, the prospects for corporate America looked dire. With the once-mighty General Motors publicly questioning its ability to survive, General Electric’s share price around an 18-year low and Citigroup’s shares trading for less than $1, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed below 6,627, a 53% decline from its all-time high less than two years earlier. The number of American firms in the global top ten by market capitalisation was on its way down from six to three, and America’s share of the top 50 companies from 50% to 40%. Once regarded even in Communist China as the business model for the world, corporate America had lost its crown. Yet, after a remarkable reversal of fortune, in 2014 American companies will be back on top of the business world.
2009年3月6日,雷曼兄弟破产半年之后,美国企业依然生机渺茫.在曾不可一世的通用汽车公开质疑其生存能力之后,通用电气的股价接近18年来最低,花旗集团的股票以低于1美元的价格进行交易,道琼斯工业平均指数收盘低于6627点,与其不到两年前的历史最高点相比,下跌了53%.在全球十大市值公司当中,美国企业的数量由六家一路下降到三家,且全球五十强美国企业所占份额从50%下降到40%.尽管曾甚至被社会主义中国视为全球经济典范,(如今的)美国企业已经丢失了皇冠.然而,在一次让人印象深刻的命运的逆转之后,2014年,美国企业将会重攀金融世界的巅峰.

The year will begin with American firms accounting for most of the global top ten by market value and nearly two-thirds of the top 50. Stockmarkets are inherently unpredictable, yet it will come as no surprise if the Dow marks the fifth anniversary of its 2009 trough by breaking records at some 10,000 points higher. Before that, in January, expect the annual Edelman Trust Barometer to show that Americans’ trust in business continues to recover strongly from its post-crash lows, even as their trust in government remains far less, while in some emerging markets trust in business is pitifully low.
这一年将会以美国企业占据全球十大市值公司的绝大部分（席位）以及全球五十强的三分之二作为开端。股票市场向来神鬼莫测，但假若道琼斯打破记录以高于10000点的指数来纪念其2009年低谷之后的第五年却不足为奇。在此之前，就等着爱德曼信任度年度调查报告发布美国的经济可信度从其重创后的最低点持续强势回升，尽管（与经济可信度相比，）政府的的可信度仍然相当低，与此同时，许多新兴市场的经济可信度依然低的可怜。

This resurgence is due in part to American policymakers doing a better job than their peers in Europe of reviving the economy after the financial crash. Demand recovered steadily, and will gather momentum in 2014 as the housing market gains strength, boosting a host of businesses, from property salesmen to home-and-garden stores. Though controversial, direct government support for companies such as gm and Citigroup means that both will enter 2014 profitable again. Liquid capital markets let corporate America rebuild its balance-sheets with cheap, long-term debt. Falling unemployment, at last, will boost consumer confidence and spending. And although for too long the recovery was “jobless” it was certainly not profitless: in 2014 American business may again account for a record share of national income.
这次（美国企业能够）卷土重来在一定程度上是由于与其欧洲的同行相比，美国的政策制定者在金融危机后推动经济复兴方面交出了一份满意的答卷。需求恢复稳定，风头强劲的房地产市场促使从房产推销员到家居精品店等一系列商业（生意兴旺），在2014年也势必将会助力需求增长。尽管存在争议，但政府对诸如通用及花旗银行等公司的直接支持意味着二者都将以盈利的姿态进入2014年。流动资金市场让美国企业以低息及长期的债务重建了其资产负债表。失业率的下降，最终将会增加消费者的信心以及开支。尽管在很长的一段时间，（经济）复兴是“无工作”的，但其绝不是无利可图的：2014美国企业可能会再次为国家收入画上浓墨重彩的一笔。

American business will rediscover its voice
美国企业将重拾声威

Corporate America will be further strengthened by growing evidence of the winning hand it has been dealt by the use of new techniques, such as fracking, for extracting oil and natural gas cheaply. Politicians will rightly seek robust regulation of these techniques—in 2014 the Environmental Protection Agency will produce an assessment of their impact—but this will not hold back the rising domestic production of “unconventional” sources of energy, benefiting the firms which sell them (a significant amount, soon, as exports) and those domestic energy users in industries from petrochemicals to steel that are close to a cheap new source of supply. In 2014 exploitation of these techniques will expand, on the way to adding what McKinsey, a consultancy, estimates could be an extra 2-4% to GDP by 2020.
越来越多的证据表明，对新技术如水力压裂法的运用，以降低榨取油和天然气的成本，犹如一手必胜牌进一步巩固美国企业地位。政客们无疑会为这些新技术制定稳固的法规——2014年环境保护局将会对这些新技术所产生的影响作出评估——但这并不会阻止国内“非常规”能源产量的上升，而（这些能源）将会使出售他们的公司（随着出口，很快便会有大量公司（出售能源））以及从石油化学到钢铁，国内与低价及新型能源供给联系紧密的行业中（非常规）能源的使用者受益。2014年，这些技术的利用将会得到扩展，如同顾问公司McKinsey所预计的那样截至2020年可为GDP增加额外的2%至4%。

The innovation nation
创新的国家

America is proving quicker than many countries to exploit unconventional energy supplies because it is embracing innovative new techniques faster and more effectively. The venture-capital industry may be shrinking, but in 2014 America’s innovation engine will prove to be in great shape. American business will again lead the world into the next phase of social media, finding ways to profit from Big Data and developing the sharing economy, which may see IPOs for firms such as AirBnB and perhaps even Etsy. Abroad, too, multinationals will show the adaptability of the American business model by shifting senior management to developing countries and outdoing local rivals there by mastering techniques such as frugal engineering. And flush with cash reserves abroad—not least because of the failure to reform corporate tax at home—American companies will be enthusiastic buyers of foreign firms, helping to lead a new global wave of mergers and acquisitions.
由于美国能够更快地、更高效地接纳创新科技，故与其他国家相比，美国能够更快的利用非常规能源补给。风险资本产业也许会缩水，但在2014年，美国的创新发动机将会证明其整装待发。美国企业将会再次引领世界进入社会媒体的下一个阶段，寻求从Big Data获利的方法以及发展共享型经济，在这种经济模式下，诸如AirBnB也许甚至是Etsy的首次公开发行也会成为可能。国外市场也是，世界各国将会通过将高级管理层转移到发展中国家以及掌握例如节约工程等技术以战胜目的国（发展中国家）当地的竞争对手来适应美国的商业模式。但是大量现金依然留在国外，主要是因为国内对企业税的改革失败——美国企业是外国公司的狂热买家，（这一现象）帮助引领了新一波世界兼收与并购的潮流。


2014 IN BRIEF: Google launches its “Glass” headset. Apple, 30 years after its first Macintosh computer, may respond with an “iWatch”
2014简而言之，谷歌推出了“玻璃”耳机。苹果在其推出第一代Macintosh电脑之后的30年，可能会以“iWatch”进行回击。

As its self-confidence grows, American business will rediscover its voice on big policy issues. Thanks to the boom in natural gas, the country’s carbon emissions have fallen sharply, making the measures corporate America will call for to tackle climate change less costly for it to implement. Business will also renew efforts to get the American government to lead the world into a round of global trade negotiations, or at least to press ahead with trade-liberalisation deals with the countries around the Pacific and with the European Union.
随着美国企业自信心增加的同时，他们将重获重大政治问题的发言权。多亏了天然气的兴起，全国的二氧化碳排放量极大的降低了，这使得实施美国企业所要求的解决气候变化的措施没那么贵了。美国企业也会继续致力于协助美国政府带领全球进入一轮贸易谈判，或者是推进与太平洋地区周边国家以及欧盟的贸易自由协议。

Alas, corporate America will still be obsessed with short-term profits. And the public will again be outraged by new records for executive pay and, in particular, by the shocking gap in most big American firms between the pay of the boss and that of the average worker. Some things never seem to get better.
哎，美国企业仍然痴迷于短期利益。而公众将会再一次对管理者薪资的新纪录以及，特别是大部分美国大公司老板与普通员工薪酬之间的惊人差异而感到义愤填膺。有些事情似乎从来就没变好过。

Matthew Bishop: New York bureau chief, The Economist
From The World In 2014 print edition