Hong Kong is in for a serious power shake-up when its next leader takes office in July, says Macquarie Research.
'We believe the election of [Leung Chun-ying] is more than just a change of guard. It has profound impact on the power shift among various interest parties in Hong Kong,' writes Macquarie in a report this week.
Mr. Leung was selected to lead the Chinese city in March by a group of 1,200 business and political elites. His Beijing-backed selection represented a surprise reversal for the city's biggest tycoons, the majority which had endorsed his rival. Though Mr. Leung was not elected by the city's 7 million, he nonetheless adopted a populist approach, making repeated visits to some of the city's poorest districts to whip up support for his campaign.
Though Mr. Leung's popularity experienced a post-March bounce, in recent weeks his approval rating has dropped by 10 points, down to 47%, according to University of Hong Kong polling. Such a trend is worrisome for Mr. Leung, especially if he wants to enjoy a second term: The year his term concludes, 2017, coincides with the time that Beijing has promised Hong Kongers the popular vote.
Accordingly, addressing the city's housing issues will clearly be Mr. Leung's top priority, writes Macquarie, which describes Hong Kong's future leader as 'biased toward socialism' and determined to help the city's poor. Among other changes, Macquarie expects more restrictions on foreign purchases and tighter property marketing practices under his administration.
Housing prices in Hong Kong have experienced a meteoric rise of late, surpassing even the peak levels reached in 1997, causing the city's financial secretary to issue warnings about the risk of property bubbles. For its part, Macquarie says thatHong Kong's property market is 'treading on thin ice,' given escalating policy risks, global economic uncertainties and a slowing in the city's GDP.
That could pose a threat to some of the city's biggest property developers, who exert considerable influence in the city, as well as potential investors, who have long viewedHong Kong's market as a sure bet.
Still, Keith Kerr, who heads the city's Real Estate Developers' Association, tells China Real Time that developers will certainly work to support the incoming chief executive and sympathize with Mr. Leung's desire to assist Hong Kong's impoverished. 'That's motherhood and apple pie,' he says. 'How could we possibly disagree with it?'
While Macquarie is gloomy on the city's real estate outlook over the coming year, expecting a 5-10% drop in prices, the report's authors conclude that Mr. Leung's policies--as well as his tighter relations with the Chinese central government--will help Hong Kong society and spur its economy, even if it means the government becomes more interventionist in the process.
Mr. Leung is preparing to take office against the local backdrop of sputtering economic growth. Hong Kong's GDP grew 0.4% year-on-year in the first quarter, down from a 3% expansion in the fourth quarter last year. In recent years, Hong Kong's economy has grown increasingly dependent on the mainland, making it highly vulnerable to slowdowns in economic activity across the border.
麦格理在本周的一份报告中说，我们认为，梁振英的当选不只是警卫换班，它对香港各个利益群体之间的权力转换有着深刻的影响。
今年3月份，梁振英被1,200名政商精英选为香港下任行政长官。香港实力最雄厚的富豪当初以支持梁振英对手的居多，对他们来说，梁振英在北京支持下当选是一次出人意料的逆转。虽然梁振英不是由香港700万民众直接选举产生的，但他还是采取了一种民粹主义的做法，多次造访香港最贫穷的一些地区，以提振自己的选情。
虽然梁振英的民意支持在3月份之后经历了反弹，但香港大学(University of Hong Kong)调查显示，他的支持率在近几个星期下降了10个点，跌至47%。这样一种趋势对于梁振英来说是值得担忧的，特别是如果他想实现连任的话。因为在其本届任期结束的2017年，正好是北京向香港人允诺的普选之年。
麦格理写道，因此很明显，解决香港住房问题将是梁振英的重中之重。麦格理认为梁振英偏向于社会主义，并有帮助香港穷人的决心。麦格理预计，梁振英政府的诸多改革之中，将包括增加对外国人购房的限制，以及对楼市营销手段加强管理等。
近来香港房价猛涨，超过了1997年达到的峰值水平，为此财政司司长对地产泡沫的风险发出了警告。麦格理说，考虑到政策风险越来越大、全球经济前景不明、香港GDP增长放缓等因素，香港楼市正如履薄冰。
这有可能对香港一些很有影响的房地产开发商，以及长期以为香港市场稳赚不赔的潜在投资者构成威胁。
但香港地产建设商会(Real Estate Developers' Association)会长简基富(Keith Kerr)对《华尔街日报》的“中国实时报”(China RealTime)栏目说，开发商肯定会支持即将上任的新特首，并体谅梁振英帮助香港贫困人士的愿望。他说，这是最基本的事情，我们怎么可能不同意呢？
虽然麦格理不看好接下来一年的香港楼市前景，预计房价将会下跌5%到10%，但报告作者认为，梁振英的政策以及他与中央政府更密切的关系将有利于香港社会，并给香港经济带来刺激作用，即便这意味着政府的干预主义色彩在这一过程中变得更加强烈。
就在梁振英准备上任的时候，当地经济增长正在失去动力。香港一季度GDP同比增长0.4%，低于去年第四季度3%的增幅。近些年香港经济越来越依靠内地，因而也非常容易受到边境另一侧经济放缓的冲击。
Te-Ping Chen
'We believe the election of [Leung Chun-ying] is more than just a change of guard. It has profound impact on the power shift among various interest parties in Hong Kong,' writes Macquarie in a report this week.
Mr. Leung was selected to lead the Chinese city in March by a group of 1,200 business and political elites. His Beijing-backed selection represented a surprise reversal for the city's biggest tycoons, the majority which had endorsed his rival. Though Mr. Leung was not elected by the city's 7 million, he nonetheless adopted a populist approach, making repeated visits to some of the city's poorest districts to whip up support for his campaign.
Though Mr. Leung's popularity experienced a post-March bounce, in recent weeks his approval rating has dropped by 10 points, down to 47%, according to University of Hong Kong polling. Such a trend is worrisome for Mr. Leung, especially if he wants to enjoy a second term: The year his term concludes, 2017, coincides with the time that Beijing has promised Hong Kongers the popular vote.
Accordingly, addressing the city's housing issues will clearly be Mr. Leung's top priority, writes Macquarie, which describes Hong Kong's future leader as 'biased toward socialism' and determined to help the city's poor. Among other changes, Macquarie expects more restrictions on foreign purchases and tighter property marketing practices under his administration.
Housing prices in Hong Kong have experienced a meteoric rise of late, surpassing even the peak levels reached in 1997, causing the city's financial secretary to issue warnings about the risk of property bubbles. For its part, Macquarie says thatHong Kong's property market is 'treading on thin ice,' given escalating policy risks, global economic uncertainties and a slowing in the city's GDP.
That could pose a threat to some of the city's biggest property developers, who exert considerable influence in the city, as well as potential investors, who have long viewedHong Kong's market as a sure bet.
Still, Keith Kerr, who heads the city's Real Estate Developers' Association, tells China Real Time that developers will certainly work to support the incoming chief executive and sympathize with Mr. Leung's desire to assist Hong Kong's impoverished. 'That's motherhood and apple pie,' he says. 'How could we possibly disagree with it?'
While Macquarie is gloomy on the city's real estate outlook over the coming year, expecting a 5-10% drop in prices, the report's authors conclude that Mr. Leung's policies--as well as his tighter relations with the Chinese central government--will help Hong Kong society and spur its economy, even if it means the government becomes more interventionist in the process.
Mr. Leung is preparing to take office against the local backdrop of sputtering economic growth. Hong Kong's GDP grew 0.4% year-on-year in the first quarter, down from a 3% expansion in the fourth quarter last year. In recent years, Hong Kong's economy has grown increasingly dependent on the mainland, making it highly vulnerable to slowdowns in economic activity across the border.
麦
格理研究公司(Macquarie Research)说，新任特首7月份就职时，香港将迎来剧烈的权力结构调整。麦格理在本周的一份报告中说，我们认为，梁振英的当选不只是警卫换班，它对香港各个利益群体之间的权力转换有着深刻的影响。
今年3月份，梁振英被1,200名政商精英选为香港下任行政长官。香港实力最雄厚的富豪当初以支持梁振英对手的居多，对他们来说，梁振英在北京支持下当选是一次出人意料的逆转。虽然梁振英不是由香港700万民众直接选举产生的，但他还是采取了一种民粹主义的做法，多次造访香港最贫穷的一些地区，以提振自己的选情。
虽然梁振英的民意支持在3月份之后经历了反弹，但香港大学(University of Hong Kong)调查显示，他的支持率在近几个星期下降了10个点，跌至47%。这样一种趋势对于梁振英来说是值得担忧的，特别是如果他想实现连任的话。因为在其本届任期结束的2017年，正好是北京向香港人允诺的普选之年。
麦格理写道，因此很明显，解决香港住房问题将是梁振英的重中之重。麦格理认为梁振英偏向于社会主义，并有帮助香港穷人的决心。麦格理预计，梁振英政府的诸多改革之中，将包括增加对外国人购房的限制，以及对楼市营销手段加强管理等。
近来香港房价猛涨，超过了1997年达到的峰值水平，为此财政司司长对地产泡沫的风险发出了警告。麦格理说，考虑到政策风险越来越大、全球经济前景不明、香港GDP增长放缓等因素，香港楼市正如履薄冰。
这有可能对香港一些很有影响的房地产开发商，以及长期以为香港市场稳赚不赔的潜在投资者构成威胁。
但香港地产建设商会(Real Estate Developers' Association)会长简基富(Keith Kerr)对《华尔街日报》的“中国实时报”(China RealTime)栏目说，开发商肯定会支持即将上任的新特首，并体谅梁振英帮助香港贫困人士的愿望。他说，这是最基本的事情，我们怎么可能不同意呢？
虽然麦格理不看好接下来一年的香港楼市前景，预计房价将会下跌5%到10%，但报告作者认为，梁振英的政策以及他与中央政府更密切的关系将有利于香港社会，并给香港经济带来刺激作用，即便这意味着政府的干预主义色彩在这一过程中变得更加强烈。
就在梁振英准备上任的时候，当地经济增长正在失去动力。香港一季度GDP同比增长0.4%，低于去年第四季度3%的增幅。近些年香港经济越来越依靠内地，因而也非常容易受到边境另一侧经济放缓的冲击。
Te-Ping Chen
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