据
《华尔街日报》周四报道，新闻集团(News Corp.)董事会已经批准将该媒体集团分拆为娱乐和出版两家公司的计划。本周早些时候，股东对本报“Deal Journal Australia”栏目说，分拆之举将受到欢迎。《华尔街日报》属新闻集团所有。
Bloomberg News
高盛(Goldman Sachs，评级：买进；目标价：每股23.10澳元)：驻墨尔本分析师亚历山大(Adam Alexander)在一份报告中说：我们认为，将新闻集团一分为二有助于投资者更准确地评估该集团内的单个业务部门，有望使交易价格更接近我们按照分类加总估值法、根据2013财年税息折旧及摊销前利润(EBITDA)计算出的每股23.10澳元的目标价。他还说，在对利润的贡献方面，很明显娱乐业务比出版业务大很多。他预计2013财年娱乐业务的EBITDA将达到67.3亿美元左右，而出版业务将为10.7亿美元。他指出，包括纽约时报公司(The New York Times Co.)、Axel Springer和Fairfax Media在内的全球同行2013财年预期企业价值倍数(EV/EBITDA)为五倍，据此计算，分拆出来的出版公司的潜在估值大约为53.5亿美元。
德意志银行(Deutsche Bank，评级：买进；目标价：25.30澳元)：悉尼分析师阿纳格诺斯泰利斯(Andrew Anagnostellis)在报告中说，我们预计分拆将对股价构成重大利好，甚至会延续到市场初始反应之后；分拆还将契合该公司从大约一年前旗下英国报业部门受窃听丑闻打击以来所采取的诸多积极举措，如着手回购股票、清理小股东、维持强劲的业务增长等。他认为，根据当前年度利润，新闻集团出版业务的估值应为每股3.28澳元，娱乐业务的估值应为每股28.30澳元。其中，该集团出版部门持有在澳大利亚上市的房产分类广告公司REA Group 60%的股权。
麦格理集团(Macquarie Group，评级：中性；目标价：21.95澳元)：悉尼分析师列维(Andrew Levy)在报告中说，把面临结构性挑战的出版部门从高成长的电影、有线电视、无线电视资产中分离开来，将形成两种截然不同的投资题材，有望消除“多元化企业折让”(conglomerate discount)。列维说，此举还将减少困扰新闻集团旗下英国出版部门的窃听丑闻的蔓延风险。他还说，随着时间的推移，这种新结构可能会提高新闻集团为逐步收购英国天空广播公司(BSkyB)获监管机构批准的概率。麦格理集团预计，2013财年新闻集团旗下出版公司和娱乐公司的EBITDA将分别为9.72亿美元和62.4亿美元。
苏格兰皇家银行摩根(RBS Morgans，评级：持有；目标价：21.00澳元)：驻悉尼分析师麦克利什(Fraser McLeish)在报告里说，我们的目标价是21.00澳元，相比我们按照分类加总估值法计算出的24.76澳元，打了15%的折扣。如果把娱乐业务的折扣比例缩小至10%，给出版业务一个30%的折扣，再算上2亿美元的重组成本，那我们的目标价将再增加4%。苏格兰皇家银行摩根给出的估值意味着，2012财年出版业EBITDA倍数是3.5，娱乐业是7.6。麦克利什还说，对澳大利亚投资者而言，可能还会有另外一个让他们纠结的地方，即新闻集团的大部分澳大利亚资产都是出版资产，因此可能不会考虑让娱乐公司继续在澳大利亚证券交易所(ASX)和美国两地上市。麦克利什说，虽然他认为拆分是个利好消息，但股价最终的上扬幅度将低于本周早些时候《华尔街日报》披露拆分消息后市场已经消化的股价涨幅。苏格兰皇家银行摩根认为，出版公司的市值为52亿美元。出版公司将包括一些有吸引力的资产，如《华尔街日报》，但同时也会包括麻烦缠身的英国报业部门、图书出版业务、插页和我们估计常年亏损的报刊业务，比如《纽约邮报》(New York Post)。
The Wall Street Journal reports Thursday that the board of News Corp. has approved a plan to split the media conglomerate into two divisions ─ entertainment and publishing. Earlier this week, shareholders told Deal Journal Australia the move would be welcomed. News Corp. owns The Wall Street Journal.
Analysts reacted to news of a split as follows:
Goldman Sachs (Buy;Price Target A$23.10):'In our view, splitting News. Corp into two companies would enable investors to more accurately value the individual business units within the group and could potentially see the combined entity trade closer to our FY13E EBITDA sum-of-the parts valuation of A$23.10 a share,' Melbourne-based analyst Adam Alexander said in a note. 'In terms of earnings contribution, it is evident that [entertainment] would be significantly larger than [publishing],' he added, forecasting fiscal 2013 EBITDA for the entertainment business of around US$6.73 billion compared to US$1.07 billion from the publishing business. The broker notes the expected fiscal 2013 EV/EBITDA multiple of global peers including The New York Times Co., Axel Springer and Fairfax Media is 5.0 times which gives the publishing business an implied valuation of US$5.35 billion.
Deutsche Bank (Buy; Price Target A$25.30): 'We expect that a split-off would be a major positive for shares, even beyond the initial reaction, and would fit in with the many positive steps the company has been taking (starting share repurchases, cleaning up minorities, sustaining strong operating growth) since the hacking scandal hit its U.K. newspapers about a year ago,' Sydney-based analyst Andrew Anagnostellis said in a note. He values the publishing business ─ which owns a 60% stake in Australia-listed property classifieds player REA Group ─ at A$3.28 a share compared to the entertainment unit's worth of A$28.30 a share, based on current year earnings.
Macquarie Group (Neutral, Price Target A$21.95): 'Separating the structurally challenged publishing division from the high-growth entertainment assets of film, cable and TV would create two distinct investment propositions and potentially remove a 'conglomerate discount' that is a by-product of this,' Sydney-based analyst Andrew Levy said in a note, adding that the move would also mitigate perceived risks of contagion from the hacking scandal which afflicted U.K. publications. 'The new structure might, in time, improve News' chances of gaining regulatory approval for an accretive takeover of BSkyB,' he added. The broker expects the publishing and entertainment companies to generate fiscal2013 EBITDA of US$972 million and US$6.24 billion respectively.
RBS Morgans (Hold, Price Target A$21.00): 'Our A$21.00 price target is at a 15% holding company discount to our A$24.76 sum-of-the-parts valuation. If we narrowed the discount on [entertainment] to 10%, but attach a 30% discount to [publishing] and incorporate US$200 million of restructuring costs then this would add 4% to our price target,' Sydney-based analyst Fraser McLeish said in a note. The broker's valuation implies fiscal 2012 EBITDA multiples of 3.5 times for publishing and 7.6 times for entertainment. 'There could be an additional twist for Australian investors in that the majority of Australian assets will be in publishing and there is therefore a possibility that entertainment will not retain a dual listing on the ASX,' he added. Mr McLeish said that although he would view a demerger as positive, eventual upside will be less than what has been priced into the stock following the breaking story by The Wall Street Journal earlier this week. RBS Morgans values publishing at US$5.2 billion. 'It would contain some attractive assets, such as the WSJ, but would also include the problematic UK newspaper business, book publishing operations, inserts and certain mastheads that we estimate have been perennial loss makers, such as the New York Post.'
Analysts reacted to news of a split as follows:
Goldman Sachs (Buy;Price Target A$23.10):'In our view, splitting News. Corp into two companies would enable investors to more accurately value the individual business units within the group and could potentially see the combined entity trade closer to our FY13E EBITDA sum-of-the parts valuation of A$23.10 a share,' Melbourne-based analyst Adam Alexander said in a note. 'In terms of earnings contribution, it is evident that [entertainment] would be significantly larger than [publishing],' he added, forecasting fiscal 2013 EBITDA for the entertainment business of around US$6.73 billion compared to US$1.07 billion from the publishing business. The broker notes the expected fiscal 2013 EV/EBITDA multiple of global peers including The New York Times Co., Axel Springer and Fairfax Media is 5.0 times which gives the publishing business an implied valuation of US$5.35 billion.
Deutsche Bank (Buy; Price Target A$25.30): 'We expect that a split-off would be a major positive for shares, even beyond the initial reaction, and would fit in with the many positive steps the company has been taking (starting share repurchases, cleaning up minorities, sustaining strong operating growth) since the hacking scandal hit its U.K. newspapers about a year ago,' Sydney-based analyst Andrew Anagnostellis said in a note. He values the publishing business ─ which owns a 60% stake in Australia-listed property classifieds player REA Group ─ at A$3.28 a share compared to the entertainment unit's worth of A$28.30 a share, based on current year earnings.
Macquarie Group (Neutral, Price Target A$21.95): 'Separating the structurally challenged publishing division from the high-growth entertainment assets of film, cable and TV would create two distinct investment propositions and potentially remove a 'conglomerate discount' that is a by-product of this,' Sydney-based analyst Andrew Levy said in a note, adding that the move would also mitigate perceived risks of contagion from the hacking scandal which afflicted U.K. publications. 'The new structure might, in time, improve News' chances of gaining regulatory approval for an accretive takeover of BSkyB,' he added. The broker expects the publishing and entertainment companies to generate fiscal2013 EBITDA of US$972 million and US$6.24 billion respectively.
RBS Morgans (Hold, Price Target A$21.00): 'Our A$21.00 price target is at a 15% holding company discount to our A$24.76 sum-of-the-parts valuation. If we narrowed the discount on [entertainment] to 10%, but attach a 30% discount to [publishing] and incorporate US$200 million of restructuring costs then this would add 4% to our price target,' Sydney-based analyst Fraser McLeish said in a note. The broker's valuation implies fiscal 2012 EBITDA multiples of 3.5 times for publishing and 7.6 times for entertainment. 'There could be an additional twist for Australian investors in that the majority of Australian assets will be in publishing and there is therefore a possibility that entertainment will not retain a dual listing on the ASX,' he added. Mr McLeish said that although he would view a demerger as positive, eventual upside will be less than what has been priced into the stock following the breaking story by The Wall Street Journal earlier this week. RBS Morgans values publishing at US$5.2 billion. 'It would contain some attractive assets, such as the WSJ, but would also include the problematic UK newspaper business, book publishing operations, inserts and certain mastheads that we estimate have been perennial loss makers, such as the New York Post.'
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